After 10 weeks of competition, we have our first playoff spot clinched. Cliburn's Arrogant Americans clinched a playoff spot in the NFC, while top teams in the AFC and PFC are likely one win away from doing the same. After two consecutive losses, Schuster's Negligent Discharges are in danger of losing the top seed in the AFC to Venable's War Pony, who are one win behind Schuster despite scoring about seven more points per game. The PFC is led by Derek Baldwin's Blue Falcons, with the defending champion Vandals—managed by Lutonsky—tied in W-L record. However, should the two teams keep pace in wins, the Falcons will retain the top spot thanks to a commanding lead in points for. If both teams lose another game between now and the playoffs, though, Buehre's Dirty Dogs may leapfrog both, as they are one win behind each team but have a lead in points for.
The 'Mericans continue to have a commanding lead in OPR, but a tough end-of-season schedule remains after a schedule over the first 10 weeks that, if the season ended now, would be the second-easiest schedule in OIL history in points per game. Venable, Schuster, Derek Baldwin, and Buehre round out the top five. Perennial NFC favorite and three-time champion Bruesch is sixth.
One week after setting the record for most consecutive wins to begin a season, Schuster's Negligent Discharges narrowly lost their first game (mostly due to Tom Brady). No undefeated teams remain as the playoff picture starts to take shape.
The Arrogant Americans continue to pace the field in OPR, but we'll see how they do as bye weeks and injuries stack up.
This was an historic Week Eight as Negligent Discharges manager Adam Schuster set the record for most consecutive wins to begin a season after winning extending his winning streak to eight games. At 8-0, this is the best start to a season in OIL history.
But Schuster is not number one in OPR. That honor remains with Cliburn's Arrogant Americans. Although the 'Mericans have scored the most points in the 42-team OIL, their record and OPR are buoyed by having the easiest strength of schedule in the OIL. Schuster is second, followed by Buehre, Derek Baldwin, and Venable to round out the top five.
After an icy Week Seven, only one team remains undefeated: the AFC's Negligent Discharges. Meanwhile, previously winless teams Whackers and Orangebloods finally put a 1 in the win column. Here are your standings and Week Seven OPR rankings.
And here are the Week Seven OPR rankings. To recap, OPR stands for OIL Power Rating. It is based on the power rating created by the Oberon Mt. Fantasy Football League, which has been featured on ESPN's Fantasy Focus podcast and is used by many leagues across the country. From their website:
The OIL's adjusted power rating takes everything measured by the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and then calculates how each team compares to the rest of the league for that season. So, what is measured is not raw data that fluctuates by season but, instead, how much better or worse a team is than the average team for that season. But first, the baseline raw power rating needs to be calculated.
The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula is best explained by its creator:
(avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2]
The OIL has taken the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and added one wrinkle to better compare teams from different seasons. For example, a 2018 team might have the same record as a 2010 team but more points scored. On its face, the 2018 team is superior. But, if the league-wide scoring in 2018 is significantly more than it was in 2010, the 2010 team may have been more dominant. That is what we aim to discover using the adjusted OIL Power Rating. The formula for the adjusted OPR is:
And then there was one—undefeated team, that is. After six weeks, the AFC's Negligent Discharges stand at 6-0. Formerly undefeated War Pony and the Arrogant Americans both suffered their first losses in Week Six. Meanwhile, only two winless teams remain: the NFC's Whackers and the PFC's Orangebloods. Click on the standings to view them on Yahoo.
The NFC's Arrogant Americans and AFC's War Pony continue to jockey for first place in OPR with the 'Mericans leapfrogging War Pony in Week Six.
Three teams remain undefeated (War Pony, Negligent Discharges, Arrogant Americans) while another three remain winless (Whackers, Orangebloods, Boomtown Brawlers). Of eight teams who have begun an OIL season 5-0, all eight have made the playoffs. Of seven teams that started an OIL season 0-5, none have made the playoffs. But it's only five games in, and it's a long season. There's a first time for everything. Click on the standings photo to visit the league on Yahoo.
War Pony has overtaken the Arrogant Americans for the top spot in the power rankings, while the Negligent Discharges are inching closer. The Doughboys are the highest-rated team with a loss. The Blue Falcons are just behind them at five. The first W-L record in the chart is expected record based on OPR. The second W-L record is the actual record.
After four weeks, only three unbeaten teams remain: the AFC's War Pony and Negligent Discharges and the NFC's Arrogant Americans. Meanwhile, the AFC's Redlegs, the NFC's Whackers, and the PFC's Orangebloods and Boomtown Brawlers are 0-4. Interestingly, both the Redlegs and Brawlers are two-time champions while the Whackers are former champions as well.
The conclusion of Week Four also coincides with the initial release of OPR rankings. A team's OPR gives more context to its record: a team with a great record may rank much lower in OPR than teams with worse records, perhaps signaling a market correction to come. For example, the Nightmares are 3-1 but are ranked just below the 1-3 Havoc in OPR with an expected W-L record of 7-6, which is based on the correlation of OPR and final record over 20+ seasons of data.
For most of us, Week 13 constituted the end of the 2019 season. Congratulations to those still competing, and condolences to those that aren't (myself included). Below are the final regular season standings and OPR rankings.
A new wrinkle to the OPR chart is the expected record of each team based on their OPR. The expected record is based on 299 individual seasons of data, forecasting a W/L record for each OPR.
I cannot remember a season where not a single team had clinched a playoff spot going into Rivalry Week, but that's the case in the NFC. In contrast, the AFC has four playoff spots locked up, while the PFC has two. Seeds 1-6 are all still up for grabs in the NFC. Crazy.
You may notice a jump in OPR scores from previous weeks. Regrettably, you should know there was one error in an individual manager's raw OPR formula, and that skewed everything. I have found and fixed it, and the results are below.
There are only two games left, and yet only three teams out of 42 have clinched playoff spots: the AFC's Brewmasters and the PFC's Nightmares and Team Tadlock. No NFC team has clinched a playoff berth in what may be the most competitive seasons yet in that conference.