The OIL Blog - THE OIL FANTASY FOOTBALL AND VETERAN COMMUNITY

Week Nine: Games of the Week

10/30/2018

We're getting closer and closer to the playoffs and the field is taking shape. The games below will play a huge role in determining seeding and playoff chances moving forward.

AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #1 War Pony

Sawtooths	Category	War Pony
4-4	Record	7-1
156.19	Points Per Game	162.84
179.99 (11th)	OPR (Rank)	202.65 (2nd)
35.7%	Playoff Chances	100%

The Sawtooths sit at just .500 entering Week Nine, but they're OPR ranks 11th in the 42-team OIL. They're a solid team, but they're facing a championship favorite in War Pony, who won the first two AFC championships. If Reed's Sawtooths pull this off, they'll set themselves up well for a run at the playoffs. If War Pony wins, they'll all-but-assure themselves a first-round bye in the playoffs. I predict Venable will do just that, leaving Reed having to win out to guarantee a playoff spot.

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #3 Roughnecks

Dogs of War	Category	Roughnecks
5-3	Record	6-2
149.23	Points Per Game	160.51
174.6 (15th)	OPR (Rank)	187.46 (9th)
73.3%	Playoff Chances	88%

To date, the Roughnecks have been maybe the surprise of the league. At 6-2, they're poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. And they're ranked ninth out of 42 OIL teams, but they're playing this week without Joe Mixon and Zach Ertz, each of whom are on a bye this week. That's why I'm picking the lower-ranked Dogs of War this week.

PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Dirty Dogs

Blue Falcons	Category	Dirty Dogs
5-3	Record	6-2
147.39	Points Per Game	161.73
171.66 (16th)	OPR (Rank)	191.96 (7th)
73.3%	Playoff Chances	88%

UPSET ALERT: The Blue Falcons average 14 fewer points per game than the Dirty Dogs, but I'm predicting them to eke out a close victory here while Buehre is dealing with bye weeks for his top QB, top RB, and top two TEs.

Week Eight Standings and OPR

10/30/2018

. . . and then there were none. The AFC's War Pony and the PFC's Great Plains Drifters each lost their first games of the season, ensuring no OIL team will go undefeated.

Week Eight: Games of the Week

10/24/2018

AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #4 Doughboys

Sawtooths	Category	Doughboys
4-3	Record	5-2
161.11	Points Per Game	148.76
185.80	OPR	178.77
55.4%	Playoff Chances	82.9%

Although Green (who has lost the last two Thunder Bowls) has the better record, Reed's Sawtooths are a more impressive team (despite barely being above .500). A win here could cement Reed as a title contender after two years of Danny Woodhead-induced mediocrity. And that's what I'm predicting will happen as Reed starts making a run.

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

Dogs of War	Category	Lucky Enuf
5-2	Record	6-1
149.67	Points Per Game	159.01
178.43	OPR	194.82
82.9%	Playoff Chances	90.0%

Pyle and Lucky Enuf have been jockeying for a first-round bye all season, and a win here could go a long way in that pursuit. But Cobb's Dogs of War have been sneaky-good thus far, sitting at 5-2 and clearly in the playoff hunt. This game will be a toss-up but is equally important for both squads.

PFC:
#12 Boomtown Brawlers vs.
#1 Great Plains Drifters

Boomtown Brawlers	Category	Great Plains Drifters
2-5	Record	7-0
152.32	Points Per Game	157.57
161.79	OPR	198.47
6.9%	Playoff Chances	100%

I chose this matchup because Brake, at 2-5, absolutely needs a win to keep his playoff streak alive. The Brawlers have not only made the playoffs in each of their three OIL seasons, but they've made it to the championship game in each of those seasons. He'll need to win out to guarantee a playoff spot this year. Meanwhile, Gray's Great Plains Autodrafters are on the verge of setting the OIL record for most wins to begin a season. Either way, this game has real stakes, and I'm picking Brake to pull off the upset.

Week Seven Standings and OPR

10/23/2018

Of the 10 strongest teams by OPR, three are in the AFC, three are in the NFC, and four are in the PFC.

Week Seven: Games of the Week

10/17/2018

AFC:
#7 Warm Bodies vs. #5 Rebel Alliance

Warm Bodies	Category	Rebel Alliance
3-3	Record	3-3
145.75	Points Per Game	158.17
169.29	OPR	177.97
42.5%	Playoff Chances	42.5%

Roe's Rebels have won three of four since beginning the season 0-2. But the Warm Bodies are the stronger team this week, and I predict them to cement their status as playoff contenders here.

NFC:
#3 Hangovers vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

Hangovers	Category	Lucky Enuf
4-2	Record	5-1
166.03	Points Per Game	161.03
193.60	OPR	199.21
71.2%	Playoff Chances	88.2%

Lucky Enuf manager Kevin Pyle is one Aaron Rodgers touchdown away from being 6-0, while the Hangovers have dropped two despite averaging over 166 points per game. The winner here sets themselves up nicely going into the second half of the season, and I believe that winner will be Duffy. Pyle is without JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, and I expect that to be the difference.

PFC:
#10 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

Boomtown Brawlers	Category	Team Tadlock
2-4	Record	3-3
151.33	Points Per Game	163.56
163.10	OPR	183.82
8.3%	Playoff Chances	42.5%

Two-time champion Brake began this season 0-4, but he's won two straight in dramatic fashion. If he can win this week, he'll almost be out of that four-game hole he dug. No team has ever started 0-4 and made the playoffs, so keep an eye the Brawlers. Team Tadlock has averaged over 12 more points per game than Brake, but this week is too close to call. Selfishly, I'm hoping Brake wins just for the story of an 0-4 team turning it around though.

Week Six Standings and OPR

10/16/2018

With Pyle's last-minute loss to Finch, there are only two unbeaten teams remaining in the OIL (and both of them were auto-drafted). On the flip side, Rogers remains the only OIL team without a win as his nightmare season continues. Below the standings is the current OPR for each team. The top 10 features two AFC teams, four NFC teams, and four PFC teams.

OIL Power Rankings: Week Five

10/12/2018

One advantage to adding the OPR to the OIL spreadsheet is that we can now more easily compare managers from one conference against another. Below is a ranking of all OIL teams heading into Week Six (Spicer and Stanley took over teams mid-season, so theirs are not being included).

Week Six: Games of the Week

10/10/2018

AFC:
#6 Steel Reign vs. #3 Redlegs

Steel Reign	Category	Redlegs
3-2	Record	3-2
145.73	Points Per Game	161.77
168.81	OPR	189.37
47.9%	Playoff Odds	47.9%

Although these two teams share a common record, looks can be deceiving. The Redlegs average 15 more points per game and boast an OPR over 20 points higher than Steel Reign. Look for Zerger to get to 4-2.

NFC:
#5 Roughnecks vs. #3 Arrogant Americans

Roughnecks	Category	'Mericans
3-2	Record	4-1
173.10	Points Per Game	146.26
189.02	OPR	180.14
47.9%	Playoff Odds	81.8%

Despite averaging almost 30 points less per game than the Roughnecks, Cliburn's 'Mericans sit a game higher at 4-1. Under normal circumstances, I would pick Baldwin, as he has the better team. But he's dealing with injuries and bye weeks, so I'm cautiously predicting the 'Mericans to move to 5-1.

PFC:
#7 Enforcers vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

Enforcers	Category	Chiefs
3-2	Record	3-2
138.21	Points Per Game	165.35
160.28	OPR	188.56
47.9%	Playoff Odds	47.9%

This is another case where looks can be deceiving. Despite the same record, the Chiefs are vastly superior to the Enforcers . . . and the Enforcers QB is on a bye week. Look for Pennington to get to 4-2.

Week Five Standings

10/9/2018

Congratulations to Kevin Pyle, who not only knocked off the top-ranked Whackers to move to 5-0 but also clinched his 100th victory in the process. Here are your standings heading into Week Six.

Pyle 'Lucky Enuf' to Win 100 Career Games

10/8/2018

SHAWNEE — Drew Brees wasn't the one making history Monday night. After 173 games, 13 seasons, seven playoff berths, and two championships, Lucky Enuf clinched their 100th victory at the close of Monday Night Football. They are the second OIL franchise to reach the milestone. Congratulations to Lucky Enuf manager and original OILer Kevin Pyle, who also moved to 5-0 and first place with the victory.