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Week Four: Games of the Week

9/26/2018

We're at the point in the season where a single loss can drop a team's playoff chances by as much as 30%. Unfortunately, we're also getting into bye week and injury season. The NFC number-one Whackers lost their starting QB for the year. Multiple star players are on byes. But the season rolls on. To the games:

AFC:
#2 Brewmasters vs. #1 War Pony

Brewmasters	Category	War Pony
2-1	Record	3-0
160.28	Points Per Game	163.93
189.71	OPR	204.82
54.5%	Playoff Chances	89.5%

War Pony is a two-time champion in this league, so his number-one ranking is not a surprise. But the Brewmasters have never been a true contender. If they're to make a bid for a championship, it starts here. Fortunately, War Pony is dealing with a host of bye weeks and injuries. That's why I'm picking the second-ranked Brew Crew to knock them off and ascend to the top spot.

NFC:
#4 Roughnecks vs. #1 Lucky Enuf

Roughnecks	Category	Lucky Enuf
2-1	Record	3-0
168.43	Points Per Game	156.58
192.99	OPR	200.16
54.2%	Playoff Chances	89.5%

Last week's number-one team faces this week's number-one team. The upstart Roughnecks vs. two-time champion Lucky Enuf. If Pyle can pull it out, his playoff chances will increase to 90.9%. The Roughnecks can move to a 59.6% playoff chance with a win. Although Baldwin's averaging 12 more points per game, I'm picking Lucky Enuf to get to 4-0. Baldwin just has too many injuries and byes.

PFC:
#7 SECFOR Sixers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

SECFOR Sixers	Category	Team Tadlock
2-1	Record	2-1
144.32	Points Per Game	164.83
171.12	OPR	188.06
54.2%	Playoff Chances	54.2%

The winner here sees their playoff odds move to 59.6%. The loser? 43.2%. Unfortunately, Cordes and Sixers are dealing with injuries to TE Evan Engram and RB Jay Ajayi. I'm picking Tadlock to march further towards the playoffs.

Week Three Standings

9/25/2018

Six out of 42 OIL teams have yet to lose a game. At 3-0, their playoff odds are 89.5%. Those at 2-1 have a 54.2% chance of reaching the playoffs. 1-2 sits at 29.89%. 0-3? 5% . . . so I'm saying there's a chance.

Week Three: Games of the Week

9/19/2018

It's on to Week Three in the OIL, and we've got some great matchups coming up. Let's get to them:

AFC:
#7 Redlegs vs. #1 Brewmasters

Redlegs	Category	Brewmasters
1-1	Record	2-0
145.35	Points Per Game	175.78
165.35	OPR	215.78
43.33%	Playoff Chances	62.8%

Here we have the two-time defending champion Redlegs versus the upstart, top-ranked Brewmasters. This game is pivotal for Zerger, as a loss for the Redlegs would drop the defending champs' playoff odds to 29.89%. A win would increase that percentage to 54.2%. The Brewmasters are coasting on autodraft, but points are points.

This game will depend on the production of the Redlegs QB position, as they've been hamstrung the past two weeks by Marcus Mariota and Case Keenum. Remarkably, the Redlegs have averaged 145.35 points per game while only getting 9.675 points per game from the QB position. If Zerger can solidify his QB spot, he can win this one, and I'm picking him to pull the upset.

NFC:
#14 AMMODOGS vs. #12 SoonerJack

AMMODOGS	Category	SoonerJack
0-2	Record	0-2
112.93	Points Per Game	130.89
112.93	OPR	130.89
22.2%	Playoff Chances	22.2%

It is pretty early to have a playoff-elimination game, but that's what I think we have here. Teams that begin the season 0-3 have reached the playoffs only 5% of the time over 15 OIL seasons, and these two are 0-2. The AMMODOGS has a good team on paper, but they've massively disappointed due to regression from Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning's pop-gun arm handicapping Odell Beckham, and injuries to Jay Ajayi and Doug Baldwin. SoonerJack is a three-time champion who is always a trade away from contending. Largely due to the injuries, I'm picking Bruesch and SoonerJack to beat the AMMODOGS. However, even at 0-3, Rogers could buck the trend and make the playoffs. It all depends on health and things getting sorted out in the Houston and New York offenses.

SoonerJack is attempting to intimidate the AMMODOGS by wearing their black jerseys commemorating their third OIL championship in 2015. We'll see if it works.

PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #1 FDC Chiefs

Drifters	Category	Chiefs
2-0	Record	2-0
149.00	Points Per Game	191.38
189.16	OPR	231.38
62.8%	Playoff Chances	62.8%

In contrast to the NFC's Game of the Week, the winner of this matchup will increase his playoff chances to 89.5%. But the Great Plains Drifters look like paper tigers right now. Although they have the same 2-0 record as the FDC Chiefs, they average over 40 fewer points per game and their OPR is over 40 points lower than the Chiefs. I'm picking Pennington and his Chiefs to win this one.

Hangovers Set Frustrating Record

9/19/2018

The NFC's Hangovers lost Monday night to DominationStation by a score of 164.50-164.45. In doing so, they set the OIL record for smallest margin of defeat. Congrats?

As a reminder, you can access the full OIL Record Book year-round here. See the full matchup below:

NEW: Playoff Odds Calculator

9/19/2018

Pictured: OIL analytics and statistics department

The OIL's analytics and statistics department has crunched the weekly data across 15 different OIL seasons to provide you with the below playoff odds calculator. While this chart cannot take into account your team makeup or remaining schedule, it can tell you what percentage of teams with your record reached the playoffs or championship game.

The data is now available in the OIL league history spreadsheet and is embedded at okiraqi.org/playoffs. You can access the file directly here.

Week Two Standings

9/18/2018

After two weeks, the PFC's FDC Chiefs lead the OIL at 2-0 and the most points in the league (191.75 per game). But it were the AFC's Brewmasters who scored the most points in the season's second stanza, with 205.35 points. The scoring explosion moved the Brew Crew to number one in the AFC, while the NFC and PFC's top teams remain unchanged with the Roughnecks and FDC Chiefs holding the top spots, respectively. Click the standings to access the league on Yahoo!.

After crunching the data of 15 OIL seasons' worth of records, I found that the playoff odds at this point are:

62.8% of 2-0 teams reached the playoffs; 23.3% reached the championship;
43.33% of 1-1 teams reached playoffs; 12.5% reached the championship;
22.22% of 0-2 reached playoffs; 8.89% reached championship.

Here is the current OPR for each manager going into Week Three:

Games of the Week: Week Two

9/12/2018

Football season is back, and that means so are the Games of the Week. It's only Week Two, but we're already blessed with two #1 vs. #2 matchups. To the games!

AFC:
#2 Vultures vs. #1 Cocks

Vultures	Category	Cocks
1-0e	Record	1-0
163.80	Points Per Game	182.20
203.80	OPR	222.20

#1 vs. #2. First Platoon vs. First Platoon. Bird vs. Bird. Marlow vs. Comanche. We couldn't ask for a better matchup in Week Two. Look for the Cocks pull out a close win to remain on top at least one more week.

NFC:
#2 DARC NARCS vs. #1 Roughnecks

DARC NARCS	Category	Roughnecks
1-0	Record	1-0
169.90	Points Per Game	179.00
209.90	OPR	219.00

Aside from the DARC NARCS' second-place finish in 2015, these two teams aren't used being near the top. But here they are. Look for Henderson to knock off the top-ranked Roughnecks, but there's plenty of football left to be played. Perhaps these two will meet again in the playoffs.

PFC:
#14 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #1 FDC Chiefs

Brawlers	Category	Chiefs
0-1	Record	1-0
101.55	Points Per Game	193.25
101.55	OPR	233.25

There's two ways to look at this. The first is the last-place team vs. the top team. But I prefer to look at it as the defending champion Brawlers vs. the 2018 favorite FDC Chiefs. Brake has been to the last three Patriot Bowls, so don't let his Week One hiccup define this team. They'll be contenders. On the flip-side, Pennington didn't have to draft his team from the back of a Humvee this year, and it shows. His team is the favorite to win it all. I think the Chiefs will win, but don't be surprised if the Brawlers even up their record at 1-1. Whether they win or lose though, the season is long from over for the PFC's most successful franchise.

Week One Standings

9/11/2018

Congratulations to Pennington and FDC Chiefs for posting the high score for the week across all three conferences. Your first-place teams going into Week Two are the Cocks (Peacock), the Roughnecks (Baldwin, Yancy), and the aforementioned FDC Chiefs. Click the screenshot to access the league directly on Yahoo.

2018 OIL Draft Results

9/5/2018

The 2018 OIL Draft was once again held at a secluded cabin north of Ada. Here are the results.

RateMyLeague.com Podcast Reviews 2018 OIL Drafts

9/5/2018

For the fourth year in a row, RateMyLeague.com has reviewed each OIL draft. Below are the audio files and the order in which RML ranked the drafts. Click on the teams to view their roster on Yahoo!.

Click to view on Yahoo!

The AFC has a couple of familiar teams at the top, as the Redlegs and Doughboys have played each other for the AFC title the last two seasons.

*Autodrafted
**Drafted live at cabin
© Defending Champion

Click to view on Yahoo!

The NFC is led by the AMMODOGS, who autodrafted due to something called "church."

*Autodrafted
**Drafted live at cabin
© Defending Champion

Click to view on Yahoo!

The PFC disappointed with only three managers drafting live at the cabin and five teams autodrafting.

*Autodrafted
**Drafted live at cabin
© Defending Champion