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Well, we made it. I never expected to get a full season of football during the global pandemic, but here we are. Let's hope the NFL gets three more weeks in before it implodes because we've got some champions to crown. In the AFC, defending champion Rebel Alliance collapsed late, losing three in a row to finish the year. They are out of the playoffs. In the hunt are Negligent Discharges, War Pony, Hooligans, Mutinous Apes (making their first playoff appearance), Brewmasters, and Doughboys. In the NFC, the three top seeds account for 10 OIL championships. In the hunt this year are Arrogant Americans, SoonerJack, back-to-back defending champion Lucky Enuf, DominationStation, Dead Again (marking the first time Schmidt has made the playoffs in two consecutive seasons since 2006-07), and the DARC NARCS. In the PFC, the contenders are the Blue Falcons, Dirty Dogs, defending champion Vandals, Nightmares, Great Plains Drifters, and The Xtreme (who clinched their sixth winning season in as many years in the OIL). The final OPR rankings include a column showing the plus/minus differential of each team compared to the league's prime meridian. Now that the season is final, you can review the expected vs. actual records and know whose record was bolstered by luck and whose record was weighed down by a tough schedule. 
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Heading into Rivalry Week, only one AFC playoff spot is clinched, and nine teams are vying for the other six invitations to the tournament, including the Mutinous Apes who just clinched their first winning season. While not official, the Negligent Discharges will be the one-seed and receive a first-round bye (their first). The NFC has three playoff spots clinched. The Arrogant Americans will most likely receive a first-round bye, unless they lose in Week 13 and Lucky Enuf and SoonerJack both outscore them by 200 points. The remaining three playoff spots are being fought over by six teams, with two of those teams (the AMMODOGS and DominationStation) playing each other this week. For DominationStation to miss the playoffs, they would have to lose to the AMMODOGS and both the DARC NARCS and Hangovers would have to win big. The PFC also has three playoff spots locked up, with the Blue Falcons guaranteed the number-one seed and a first-round bye. The second first-round bye will go to either the two-time champion Dirty Dogs or defending champion Vandals. Six teams are in the hunt for the other three playoff spots, with the Nightmares the only team guaranteed a place in the post-season with a victory in Week 13. Congratulations to the following:
Heading into Week 13, the Hangovers are the OIL's prime meridian, with a perfectly-average OPR of 1.000. After losing to Lucky Enuf in Week 12, the Arrogant Americans' OPR dropped from what would be a record-breaking 1.335 to 1.281, which would rank third all-time.  With two weeks remaining in the season, four teams have clinched spots: the AFC's Negligent Discharges; the NFC's Arrogant Americans and SoonerJack; and the PFC's Blue Falcons. That leaves 14 playoff spots up for grabs. Week 11 also saw a record tied as War Eagle's 0.05-point victory over Steel Reign tied the record for smallest margin of victory/defeat. The top five in OPR across all conferences is: 1. Arrogant Americans; 2. Negligent Discharges; 3. War Pony; 4. Blue Falcons; 5. Dirty Dogs.  After 10 weeks of competition, we have our first playoff spot clinched. Cliburn's Arrogant Americans clinched a playoff spot in the NFC, while top teams in the AFC and PFC are likely one win away from doing the same. After two consecutive losses, Schuster's Negligent Discharges are in danger of losing the top seed in the AFC to Venable's War Pony, who are one win behind Schuster despite scoring about seven more points per game. The PFC is led by Derek Baldwin's Blue Falcons, with the defending champion Vandals—managed by Lutonsky—tied in W-L record. However, should the two teams keep pace in wins, the Falcons will retain the top spot thanks to a commanding lead in points for. If both teams lose another game between now and the playoffs, though, Buehre's Dirty Dogs may leapfrog both, as they are one win behind each team but have a lead in points for. The 'Mericans continue to have a commanding lead in OPR, but a tough end-of-season schedule remains after a schedule over the first 10 weeks that, if the season ended now, would be the second-easiest schedule in OIL history in points per game. Venable, Schuster, Derek Baldwin, and Buehre round out the top five. Perennial NFC favorite and three-time champion Bruesch is sixth.  One week after setting the record for most consecutive wins to begin a season, Schuster's Negligent Discharges narrowly lost their first game (mostly due to Tom Brady). No undefeated teams remain as the playoff picture starts to take shape. The Arrogant Americans continue to pace the field in OPR, but we'll see how they do as bye weeks and injuries stack up.  This was an historic Week Eight as Negligent Discharges manager Adam Schuster set the record for most consecutive wins to begin a season after winning extending his winning streak to eight games. At 8-0, this is the best start to a season in OIL history. But Schuster is not number one in OPR. That honor remains with Cliburn's Arrogant Americans. Although the 'Mericans have scored the most points in the 42-team OIL, their record and OPR are buoyed by having the easiest strength of schedule in the OIL. Schuster is second, followed by Buehre, Derek Baldwin, and Venable to round out the top five.  After an icy Week Seven, only one team remains undefeated: the AFC's Negligent Discharges. Meanwhile, previously winless teams Whackers and Orangebloods finally put a 1 in the win column. Here are your standings and Week Seven OPR rankings. And here are the Week Seven OPR rankings. To recap, OPR stands for OIL Power Rating. It is based on the power rating created by the Oberon Mt. Fantasy Football League, which has been featured on ESPN's Fantasy Focus podcast and is used by many leagues across the country. From their website: The Formula  The OIL's adjusted power rating takes everything measured by the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and then calculates how each team compares to the rest of the league for that season. So, what is measured is not raw data that fluctuates by season but, instead, how much better or worse a team is than the average team for that season. But first, the baseline raw power rating needs to be calculated. The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula is best explained by its creator: (avg score x 6) + [(high score + low score) x 2] +[ (winning % x 200) x 2] The OIL has taken the Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula and added one wrinkle to better compare teams from different seasons. For example, a 2018 team might have the same record as a 2010 team but more points scored. On its face, the 2018 team is superior. But, if the league-wide scoring in 2018 is significantly more than it was in 2010, the 2010 team may have been more dominant. That is what we aim to discover using the adjusted OIL Power Rating. The formula for the adjusted OPR is:  And then there was one—undefeated team, that is. After six weeks, the AFC's Negligent Discharges stand at 6-0. Formerly undefeated War Pony and the Arrogant Americans both suffered their first losses in Week Six. Meanwhile, only two winless teams remain: the NFC's Whackers and the PFC's Orangebloods. Click on the standings to view them on Yahoo. The NFC's Arrogant Americans and AFC's War Pony continue to jockey for first place in OPR with the 'Mericans leapfrogging War Pony in Week Six.  Three teams remain undefeated (War Pony, Negligent Discharges, Arrogant Americans) while another three remain winless (Whackers, Orangebloods, Boomtown Brawlers). Of eight teams who have begun an OIL season 5-0, all eight have made the playoffs. Of seven teams that started an OIL season 0-5, none have made the playoffs. But it's only five games in, and it's a long season. There's a first time for everything. Click on the standings photo to visit the league on Yahoo. War Pony has overtaken the Arrogant Americans for the top spot in the power rankings, while the Negligent Discharges are inching closer. The Doughboys are the highest-rated team with a loss. The Blue Falcons are just behind them at five. The first W-L record in the chart is expected record based on OPR. The second W-L record is the actual record.  After four weeks, only three unbeaten teams remain: the AFC's War Pony and Negligent Discharges and the NFC's Arrogant Americans. Meanwhile, the AFC's Redlegs, the NFC's Whackers, and the PFC's Orangebloods and Boomtown Brawlers are 0-4. Interestingly, both the Redlegs and Brawlers are two-time champions while the Whackers are former champions as well. The conclusion of Week Four also coincides with the initial release of OPR rankings. A team's OPR gives more context to its record: a team with a great record may rank much lower in OPR than teams with worse records, perhaps signaling a market correction to come. For example, the Nightmares are 3-1 but are ranked just below the 1-3 Havoc in OPR with an expected W-L record of 7-6, which is based on the correlation of OPR and final record over 20+ seasons of data.  |
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