The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula attempts to give commissioners and owners alike a tool to predict a fantasy team's potential performance by not only looking at their average score, but also factoring in intangibles such as an owner's managerial skills (using winning percentage) and luck (good teams losing to the hot team of the week and poor teams beating better teams having a down week).
Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula
The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula combines Average Score (60%), Highest Score plus Lowest Score (20%), and Winning PTC. (20%) to come up with a team's Power Rating for use in comparing teams both in the same league in ways other than just by Win-Loss Record. The Oberon Mt. Power Rating Formula is sure to provoke endless hours of trash-talkin' and one-upsmanship!
Besides comparing teams in the same league during the same season, our Power Rating is handy for comparing teams from previous seasons (same-sized leagues only). Simply plug the stats from the older team into the formula and you can get an idea who had the best team of all time in any particular league. A feature certain to spark hours of entertaining debate. (If there have been major scoring rule changes, simply treat them as different leagues - see Multi-League Protocols below)
In 2012, Lucky Enuf finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs. But was his team bad or just unlucky? His raw OPR was 172.07, while the average for 2012 was 155.32. Applying the adjusted OPR formula (172.07/155.32) shows that Lucky Enuf was 1.108 times better than the average 2012 team. An adjusted OPR of 1.108 indicates that Lucky Enuf was one of the stronger teams in the league that season but fell victim to a tough schedule (for comparison, the 2012 champion's adjusted OPR was just a tick higher at 1.133).
Similarly, in 2013, the DARC NARCS finished with a losing record and missed the playoffs. In 2015, they won 11 games and finished second in the NFC. But, compared to the average team of each respective season, the 2013 DARC NARCS were a better team than the runner-up 2015 version, finishing at 1.116 times better than the average 2013 team (2013 champion was 1.121 times stronger than the average team). This was even while having a winning percentage 20+ points worse than 2015 (winning percentage is weighted at 20% of the OPR raw score).
#1. Multiply the team's average score by six. Average score is the very basic stat to judge a team's prowess.
#2. Add the team's highest score to their lowest score (Deviation), and multiply the result by two. Over and above the average score, the Deviation gives more importance to a team's highest scoring game, while also punishing a team a little more for their lowest score.
#3. Take the owner's winning percentage and multiply by 200, then multiply that by two. This portion of the Formula more than anything rewards and punishes for all the little intangibles associated with coaching a fantasy team. For instance, an owner that continues to win despite a less-than-impressive lineup is rewarded over and above their lagging average score. On the other hand, an owner that loses because he starts players on their bye week, or leaves injured players in their lineup, suffers twice . . . from points not scored by missing players and for the resulting losses.
#4. divide the total by 10.
The result is the Power Rating . . . or, if you like, the Potential Rating, since it actually is meant to judge the potential score a team might be expected to score on any given weekend compared to its average score. Remember, as the season progresses, a team's average score changes more and more slowly as the number of games included increases. The Power Rating formula takes not only the average score into account, but also recent extreme high or low scores, and winning or losing trends. Obviously, you will need a few weeks of data before a viable PR can be arrived at. We don't start reporting Power Ratings until after Week 3 games.
Definition of Terms:
Average score - Total of a team's points scored divided by the number of games played.
Deviation - Take the team's highest score and add to it the team's lowest score.
Winning Percentage. - Divide the team's number of wins by the number of games played.