AFC:
|
Redlegs |
Tale of the Tape |
Hooligans |
1-0 |
Record |
1-0 |
N/A until Week Four |
OPR |
N/A until Week Four |
54.8% |
Playoff Odds |
54.8% |
155.35 |
Points Per Game |
166.15 |
Neely and the Hooligans are fresh off a beatdown of the number-one ranked draft class, after finishing in last place in 2018. The schedule doesn't get easier this week, as they face two-time AFC champion Zerger and his Redlegs. Regardless of whether Antonio Brown plays for the Redlegs this week, I am picking Neely to notch his second win of the season (half of his 2018 total).
NFC:
#13 Dirty Hippies vs. #14 DominationStation
Hippies |
Tale of the Tape |
DominationStation |
0-1 |
Record |
0-1 |
N/A until Week Four |
OPR |
N/A until Week Four |
28.3% |
Playoff Odds |
28.3% |
121.60 |
Points Per Game |
105.60 |
This may seem odd that the two worst teams in the NFC qualify as the game of the week. But these two are perennial contenders in danger of falling to 0-2. Historically, less than 25% of 0-2 teams have made the playoffs. DominationStation just lost TE Hunter Henry, but I'm counting on Jessen to fill that position and doom the Hippies to an 0-2 start.
PFC:
#13 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #1 Havoc
Brawlers |
Tale of the Tape |
Havoc |
0-1 |
Record |
1-0 |
N/A until Week Four |
OPR |
N/A until Week Four |
28.3% |
Playoff Odds |
54.8% |
129.40 |
Points Per Game |
177.40 |
The two-time champion against the newcomer. The Havoc joined the league last season and drafted their own team for the first time this season. I'm picking Stanley to knock off the two-time champ Brawlers.
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Multiple teams have clinched playoff berths, and more can clinch with a win this week.
AFC:
#3 Doughboys vs. #1 War Pony
Doughboys |
Category |
War Pony |
8-3 |
Record |
9-2 |
150.48 |
Points Per Game |
161.82 |
1.130 (5th) |
OPR (Rank) |
1.213 (2nd) |
Clinched |
Clinched |
The stakes here are huge: the winner is virtually assured a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite stumbling last week, War Pony has been a superior team all season, and I expect them to win this one easily.
NFC:
#6 Arrogant Americans vs. #2 Whackers
'Mericans |
Category |
Whackers |
6-5 |
Record |
8-3 |
143.72 |
Points Per Game |
165.37 |
1.017 (19th) |
OPR (Rank) |
1.192 (3rd) |
46.2% |
100% |
The stakes differ for each team in this NFC matchup between two original OIL franchises. If the Whackers win, they are in the driver's seat for a first-round bye. If they lose, they likely lose the bye. The 'Mericans, meanwhile, absolutely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Teams that enter Rivalry Week at 6-6 have only made the playoffs 34.3% of the time, and the 'Mericans have the tough Hangovers next week. Sadly, after starting 4-0, the 'Mericans are in real danger of missing the playoffs because I think Morgan will beat my 'Mericans this week.
PFC:
#6 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Great Plains Drifters
Blue Falcons |
Category |
Drifters |
6-5 |
Record |
8-3 |
150.60 |
Points Per Game |
144.55 |
1.040 (16th) |
OPR (Rank) |
1.070 (12th) |
46.2% |
100% |
Similar stakes here, as the Drifters seek a first-round bye and the Falcons need a win to remain in the playoff race. Unlike the Arrogant Americans, though, I think they'll get it, setting up a win-and-in matchup next week against the Vandals.
The scheduling gods have brought us favor, as all three conferences feature matchups between top-four teams. Two teams (Lucky Enuf and War Pony) have clinched playoff berths, but the rest of the field is wide open. These games will play a huge role in who enjoys a first-round bye.
AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Redlegs
These two teams have similar records, but have taken different paths to get there. While the Redlegs have relied on huge games from RBs Todd Gurley and Tarik Cohen, the Cocks have won seven games off the strength of the WR corps: Odell Beckham, Jr.; Tyreek Hill; and Amari Cooper. The Redlegs are without top TE David Njoku this week, but they're still favored to win. Look at them to clinch a playoff spot and get that much closer to a first-round bye with a win here.
NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Whackers
Category |
||
7-3 |
Record |
8-2 |
149.49 |
Points Per Game |
169.16 |
177.75 (12th) |
OPR (Rank) |
201.30 (3rd) |
96.4% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
These two former champions are only one game apart, despite the Whackers outscoring the Dogs of War by an average of 20 points per game. However, due to losing two starters to byes this week, the Whackers are actually underdogs this week. But, with the Dogs missing secret weapon TE George Kittle this week, I believe the Whackers will move to 9-2.
PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #2 Dirty Dogs
Category |
||
8-2 |
Record |
8-2 |
145.98 |
Points Per Game |
159.84 |
179.80 (11th) |
OPR (Rank) |
188.81 (7th) |
100% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
Despite winning 80% of their games thus far, the Drifters appear to be paper tigers . . . and they're without two starters due to byes this week. Meanwhile, the Dirty Dogs are at full strength and have average 15 points per game more than the Drifters this season. Look for the Dirty Dogs to win in a rout.
This is a huge week in the OIL, as all three conferences feature matchups pitting fop-five teams against each other. The winners will be that much closer to a first-round playoff bye while the losers will have to re-think their playoff chances.
But the sneaky game of the week is the AMMODOGS-Dirty Hippies matchup. The DOGS tied the record for longest losing streak last week, and a loss here would give them sole possession of that ignominious record. Check the Record Book for the rest of the OIL milestones.
But the sneaky game of the week is the AMMODOGS-Dirty Hippies matchup. The DOGS tied the record for longest losing streak last week, and a loss here would give them sole possession of that ignominious record. Check the Record Book for the rest of the OIL milestones.
AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Doughboys
Cocks |
Category |
Doughboys |
6-3 |
Record |
7-2 |
147.06 |
Points Per Game |
155.69 |
177.83 (12th) |
OPR (Rank) |
191.15 (7th) |
82.1% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
Doughboys manager Nick Green has been in the last two championship games, but he's yet to take home the trophy. If he wins here, he he has a 64% chance of making the championship game for a third time. He'll face the Cocks, who are on their third-straight winning season after finishing third in 2016 and sixth in 2017. But the Doughboys are clearly a better team with a better starting lineup and more depth. The Cocks may very well make a deep playoff run, but it's not starting here.
NFC:
#3 Roughnecks vs. #1 Whackers
Roughnecks |
Category |
Whackers |
6-3 |
Record |
8-1 |
156.07 |
Points Per Game |
172.52 |
180.02 (9th) |
OPR (Rank) |
206.87 (1st) |
82.1% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
This is a David vs. Goliath matchup. The Whackers are 8-1, with their only loss coming against 8-1 Lucky Enuf. They're on pace to set the record for most points in a season, and, if the season ended today, their OPR would rank first in OIL history. Meanwhile, the Roughnecks have been doubted all season. But they're 6-3 the old-fashioned way: by leaning on workhorse RBs who don't catch a lot of passes. But their WRs remain a liability, with FantasyPros ranking his WR corps 11th in the league. Going up against such a complete team as the Whackers, you can't afford to be so below average at a key position. Look for the Roughnecks to get whacked.
PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #2 FDC Chiefs
Blue Falcons |
Category |
FDC Chiefs |
5-4 |
Record |
7-2 |
149.25 |
Points Per Game |
162.66 |
170.71 (16th) |
OPR (Rank) |
194.06 (5th) |
50% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
These two teams may be the two that want it the most in the PFC, as they each lead the conference in transactions with 23. The Falcons have ridden Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara to the fifth spot in the PFC, but they now face three top-four teams to close out the season. In order to make the playoffs, they need to at least spllit those four games. That'll be tough with the Chiefs on the horizon, as they're the fifth-best team in the entire OIL. The Falcons are also without Lamar Miller, who is on a bye. All that being said, I can see them pulling off the upset. All it takes for Mahomes and Kamara to have big games to make up for weaker spots elsewhere. I'm picking the Chiefs, as I think they're the best team in the PFC, but it will be closer than you think.
We're getting closer and closer to the playoffs and the field is taking shape. The games below will play a huge role in determining seeding and playoff chances moving forward.
AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #1 War Pony
The Sawtooths sit at just .500 entering Week Nine, but they're OPR ranks 11th in the 42-team OIL. They're a solid team, but they're facing a championship favorite in War Pony, who won the first two AFC championships. If Reed's Sawtooths pull this off, they'll set themselves up well for a run at the playoffs. If War Pony wins, they'll all-but-assure themselves a first-round bye in the playoffs. I predict Venable will do just that, leaving Reed having to win out to guarantee a playoff spot.
NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #3 Roughnecks
Category |
||
5-3 |
Record |
6-2 |
149.23 |
Points Per Game |
160.51 |
174.6 (15th) |
OPR (Rank) |
187.46 (9th) |
73.3% |
Playoff Chances |
88% |
To date, the Roughnecks have been maybe the surprise of the league. At 6-2, they're poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. And they're ranked ninth out of 42 OIL teams, but they're playing this week without Joe Mixon and Zach Ertz, each of whom are on a bye this week. That's why I'm picking the lower-ranked Dogs of War this week.
PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Dirty Dogs
Category |
||
5-3 |
Record |
6-2 |
147.39 |
Points Per Game |
161.73 |
171.66 (16th) |
OPR (Rank) |
191.96 (7th) |
73.3% |
Playoff Chances |
88% |
UPSET ALERT: The Blue Falcons average 14 fewer points per game than the Dirty Dogs, but I'm predicting them to eke out a close victory here while Buehre is dealing with bye weeks for his top QB, top RB, and top two TEs.
AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #4 Doughboys
Although Green (who has lost the last two Thunder Bowls) has the better record, Reed's Sawtooths are a more impressive team (despite barely being above .500). A win here could cement Reed as a title contender after two years of Danny Woodhead-induced mediocrity. And that's what I'm predicting will happen as Reed starts making a run.
NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Lucky Enuf
Category |
||
5-2 |
Record |
6-1 |
149.67 |
Points Per Game |
159.01 |
178.43 |
OPR |
194.82 |
82.9% |
Playoff Chances |
90.0% |
Pyle and Lucky Enuf have been jockeying for a first-round bye all season, and a win here could go a long way in that pursuit. But Cobb's Dogs of War have been sneaky-good thus far, sitting at 5-2 and clearly in the playoff hunt. This game will be a toss-up but is equally important for both squads.
PFC:
#12 Boomtown Brawlers vs.
#1 Great Plains Drifters
Category |
||
2-5 |
Record |
7-0 |
152.32 |
Points Per Game |
157.57 |
161.79 |
OPR |
198.47 |
6.9% |
Playoff Chances |
100% |
I chose this matchup because Brake, at 2-5, absolutely needs a win to keep his playoff streak alive. The Brawlers have not only made the playoffs in each of their three OIL seasons, but they've made it to the championship game in each of those seasons. He'll need to win out to guarantee a playoff spot this year. Meanwhile, Gray's Great Plains Autodrafters are on the verge of setting the OIL record for most wins to begin a season. Either way, this game has real stakes, and I'm picking Brake to pull off the upset.
AFC:
#7 Warm Bodies vs. #5 Rebel Alliance
Category |
||
3-3 |
Record |
3-3 |
145.75 |
Points Per Game |
158.17 |
169.29 |
OPR |
177.97 |
42.5% |
Playoff Chances |
42.5% |
Roe's Rebels have won three of four since beginning the season 0-2. But the Warm Bodies are the stronger team this week, and I predict them to cement their status as playoff contenders here.
NFC:
#3 Hangovers vs. #2 Lucky Enuf
Category |
||
4-2 |
Record |
5-1 |
166.03 |
Points Per Game |
161.03 |
193.60 |
OPR |
199.21 |
71.2% |
Playoff Chances |
88.2% |
Lucky Enuf manager Kevin Pyle is one Aaron Rodgers touchdown away from being 6-0, while the Hangovers have dropped two despite averaging over 166 points per game. The winner here sets themselves up nicely going into the second half of the season, and I believe that winner will be Duffy. Pyle is without JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, and I expect that to be the difference.
PFC:
#10 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #4 Team Tadlock
Category |
||
2-4 |
Record |
3-3 |
151.33 |
Points Per Game |
163.56 |
163.10 |
OPR |
183.82 |
8.3% |
Playoff Chances |
42.5% |
Two-time champion Brake began this season 0-4, but he's won two straight in dramatic fashion. If he can win this week, he'll almost be out of that four-game hole he dug. No team has ever started 0-4 and made the playoffs, so keep an eye the Brawlers. Team Tadlock has averaged over 12 more points per game than Brake, but this week is too close to call. Selfishly, I'm hoping Brake wins just for the story of an 0-4 team turning it around though.
AFC:
#6 Steel Reign vs. #3 Redlegs
Category |
||
3-2 |
Record |
3-2 |
145.73 |
Points Per Game |
161.77 |
168.81 |
OPR |
189.37 |
47.9% |
47.9% |
Although these two teams share a common record, looks can be deceiving. The Redlegs average 15 more points per game and boast an OPR over 20 points higher than Steel Reign. Look for Zerger to get to 4-2.
NFC:
#5 Roughnecks vs. #3 Arrogant Americans
Category |
||
3-2 |
Record |
4-1 |
173.10 |
Points Per Game |
146.26 |
189.02 |
OPR |
180.14 |
47.9% |
81.8% |
Despite averaging almost 30 points less per game than the Roughnecks, Cliburn's 'Mericans sit a game higher at 4-1. Under normal circumstances, I would pick Baldwin, as he has the better team. But he's dealing with injuries and bye weeks, so I'm cautiously predicting the 'Mericans to move to 5-1.
PFC:
#7 Enforcers vs. #3 FDC Chiefs
This is another case where looks can be deceiving. Despite the same record, the Chiefs are vastly superior to the Enforcers . . . and the Enforcers QB is on a bye week. Look for Pennington to get to 4-2.
I can't remember the last time we had multiple #1 vs. #2 games. And if Monday night had gone differently, we'd be looking at three matchups between top-two teams.
AFC:
#2 Redlegs vs. #1 War Pony
Category |
||
3-1 |
Record |
4-0 |
167.15 |
Points Per Game |
167.60 |
198.59 |
OPR |
208.64 |
59.6% |
90.9% |
This #1 vs. #2 matchup pits the only two champions the AFC has seen in its four-year history. Zerger slipped up in Week One, but his Redlegs have been on a tear ever since, averaging 180 points per game since then. Meanwhile, Venable and War Pony have ridden a strong (auto)draft to a 4-0 start. With a win, they'll move their playoff odds to 100%. Fortunately, they're facing the Redlegs on a bye-heavy week. Look for the auto-drafted team to get to 5-0. Life isn't fair; nothing matters.
NFC:
#2 Lucky Enuf vs. #1 Whackers
Category |
||
4-0 |
Record |
4-0 |
168.34 |
Points Per Game |
182.50 |
209.84 |
OPR |
224.31 |
90.9% |
90.9% |
Another #1 vs. #2 matchup featuring the first champions of this storied league (Lucky Enuf in 2006 and 2008; Whackers in 2007). Unlike Venable, though, each of these managers drafted their own teams. Morgan is a favorite to win the whole thing, and he's facing his biggest competitor at a good time. Pyle's team is hit hard by byes this week. Conversely, the Whackers made it to 4-0 without the aid of Julian Edelman and Alshon Jeffery. Adding those two WRs to an undefeated team seems unfair, but hats off to Morgan for an amazing draft. Whackers get to 5-0 this week.
PFC:
#4 Dirty Dogs vs. #3 FDC Chiefs
Category |
||
3-1 |
Record |
3-1 |
161.06 |
Points Per Game |
173.29 |
191.56 |
OPR |
210.52 |
59.6% |
59.6% |
Buehre is 13 points away from being 4-0 and number one. Pennington is eight points away from being number two. These two are heavy favorites in the PFC. The winner here will see their playoff odds move to 81.8%. Look for the Chiefs to move to 4-1.
We're at the point in the season where a single loss can drop a team's playoff chances by as much as 30%. Unfortunately, we're also getting into bye week and injury season. The NFC number-one Whackers lost their starting QB for the year. Multiple star players are on byes. But the season rolls on. To the games:
AFC:
#2 Brewmasters vs. #1 War Pony
Category |
||
2-1 |
Record |
3-0 |
160.28 |
Points Per Game |
163.93 |
189.71 |
OPR |
204.82 |
54.5% |
89.5% |
War Pony is a two-time champion in this league, so his number-one ranking is not a surprise. But the Brewmasters have never been a true contender. If they're to make a bid for a championship, it starts here. Fortunately, War Pony is dealing with a host of bye weeks and injuries. That's why I'm picking the second-ranked Brew Crew to knock them off and ascend to the top spot.
NFC:
#4 Roughnecks vs. #1 Lucky Enuf
Category |
||
2-1 |
Record |
3-0 |
168.43 |
Points Per Game |
156.58 |
192.99 |
OPR |
200.16 |
54.2% |
89.5% |
Last week's number-one team faces this week's number-one team. The upstart Roughnecks vs. two-time champion Lucky Enuf. If Pyle can pull it out, his playoff chances will increase to 90.9%. The Roughnecks can move to a 59.6% playoff chance with a win. Although Baldwin's averaging 12 more points per game, I'm picking Lucky Enuf to get to 4-0. Baldwin just has too many injuries and byes.
PFC:
#7 SECFOR Sixers vs. #4 Team Tadlock
Category |
||
2-1 |
Record |
2-1 |
144.32 |
Points Per Game |
164.83 |
171.12 |
OPR |
188.06 |
54.2% |
54.2% |
The winner here sees their playoff odds move to 59.6%. The loser? 43.2%. Unfortunately, Cordes and Sixers are dealing with injuries to TE Evan Engram and RB Jay Ajayi. I'm picking Tadlock to march further towards the playoffs.
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