Category: Games Of The Week

Week 12: Games of the Week

11/21/2018

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Multiple teams have clinched playoff berths, and more can clinch with a win this week.

AFC:
#3 Doughboys vs. #1 War Pony

Doughboys	Category	War Pony
8-3	Record	9-2
150.48	Points Per Game	161.82
1.130 (5th)	OPR (Rank)	1.213 (2nd)
Clinched	Playoff Chances	Clinched

The stakes here are huge: the winner is virtually assured a first-round bye in the playoffs. Despite stumbling last week, War Pony has been a superior team all season, and I expect them to win this one easily.

NFC:
#6 Arrogant Americans vs. #2 Whackers

'Mericans	Category	Whackers
6-5	Record	8-3
143.72	Points Per Game	165.37
1.017 (19th)	OPR (Rank)	1.192 (3rd)
46.2%	Playoff Chances	100%

The stakes differ for each team in this NFC matchup between two original OIL franchises. If the Whackers win, they are in the driver's seat for a first-round bye. If they lose, they likely lose the bye. The 'Mericans, meanwhile, absolutely need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Teams that enter Rivalry Week at 6-6 have only made the playoffs 34.3% of the time, and the 'Mericans have the tough Hangovers next week. Sadly, after starting 4-0, the 'Mericans are in real danger of missing the playoffs because I think Morgan will beat my 'Mericans this week.

PFC:
#6 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Great Plains Drifters

Blue Falcons	Category	Drifters
6-5	Record	8-3
150.60	Points Per Game	144.55
1.040 (16th)	OPR (Rank)	1.070 (12th)
46.2%	Playoff Chances	100%

Similar stakes here, as the Drifters seek a first-round bye and the Falcons need a win to remain in the playoff race. Unlike the Arrogant Americans, though, I think they'll get it, setting up a win-and-in matchup next week against the Vandals.

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Week 11: Games of the Week

11/13/2018

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The scheduling gods have brought us favor, as all three conferences feature matchups between top-four teams. Two teams (Lucky Enuf and War Pony) have clinched playoff berths, but the rest of the field is wide open. These games will play a huge role in who enjoys a first-round bye.

AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Redlegs

Cocks	Category	Redlegs
7-3	Record	8-2
151.41	Points Per Game	162.18
181.77 (10th)	OPR (Rank)	189.26 (6th)
96.4%	Playoff Chances	100%

These two teams have similar records, but have taken different paths to get there. While the Redlegs have relied on huge games from RBs Todd Gurley and Tarik Cohen, the Cocks have won seven games off the strength of the WR corps: Odell Beckham, Jr.; Tyreek Hill; and Amari Cooper. The Redlegs are without top TE David Njoku this week, but they're still favored to win. Look at them to clinch a playoff spot and get that much closer to a first-round bye with a win here.

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Whackers

Dogs of War	Category	Whackers
7-3	Record	8-2
149.49	Points Per Game	169.16
177.75 (12th)	OPR (Rank)	201.30 (3rd)
96.4%	Playoff Chances	100%

These two former champions are only one game apart, despite the Whackers outscoring the Dogs of War by an average of 20 points per game. However, due to losing two starters to byes this week, the Whackers are actually underdogs this week. But, with the Dogs missing secret weapon TE George Kittle this week, I believe the Whackers will move to 9-2.

PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #2 Dirty Dogs

Drifters	Category	Dirty Dogs
8-2	Record	8-2
145.98	Points Per Game	159.84
179.80 (11th)	OPR (Rank)	188.81 (7th)
100%	Playoff Chances	100%

Despite winning 80% of their games thus far, the Drifters appear to be paper tigers . . . and they're without two starters due to byes this week. Meanwhile, the Dirty Dogs are at full strength and have average 15 points per game more than the Drifters this season. Look for the Dirty Dogs to win in a rout.

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Week 10: Games of the Week

11/2/2018

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This is a huge week in the OIL, as all three conferences feature matchups pitting fop-five teams against each other. The winners will be that much closer to a first-round playoff bye while the losers will have to re-think their playoff chances.

But the sneaky game of the week is the AMMODOGS-Dirty Hippies matchup. The DOGS tied the record for longest losing streak last week, and a loss here would give them sole possession of that ignominious record. Check the Record Book for the rest of the OIL milestones.

AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Doughboys

Cocks	Category	Doughboys
6-3	Record	7-2
147.06	Points Per Game	155.69
177.83 (12th)	OPR (Rank)	191.15 (7th)
82.1%	Playoff Chances	100%

Doughboys manager Nick Green has been in the last two championship games, but he's yet to take home the trophy. If he wins here, he he has a 64% chance of making the championship game for a third time. He'll face the Cocks, who are on their third-straight winning season after finishing third in 2016 and sixth in 2017. But the Doughboys are clearly a better team with a better starting lineup and more depth. The Cocks may very well make a deep playoff run, but it's not starting here.

NFC:
#3 Roughnecks vs. #1 Whackers

Roughnecks	Category	Whackers
6-3	Record	8-1
156.07	Points Per Game	172.52
180.02 (9th)	OPR (Rank)	206.87 (1st)
82.1%	Playoff Chances	100%

This is a David vs. Goliath matchup. The Whackers are 8-1, with their only loss coming against 8-1 Lucky Enuf. They're on pace to set the record for most points in a season, and, if the season ended today, their OPR would rank first in OIL history. Meanwhile, the Roughnecks have been doubted all season. But they're 6-3 the old-fashioned way: by leaning on workhorse RBs who don't catch a lot of passes. But their WRs remain a liability, with FantasyPros ranking his WR corps 11th in the league. Going up against such a complete team as the Whackers, you can't afford to be so below average at a key position. Look for the Roughnecks to get whacked.

PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #2 FDC Chiefs

Blue Falcons	Category	FDC Chiefs
5-4	Record	7-2
149.25	Points Per Game	162.66
170.71 (16th)	OPR (Rank)	194.06 (5th)
50%	Playoff Chances	100%

These two teams may be the two that want it the most in the PFC, as they each lead the conference in transactions with 23. The Falcons have ridden Patrick Mahomes and Alvin Kamara to the fifth spot in the PFC, but they now face three top-four teams to close out the season. In order to make the playoffs, they need to at least spllit those four games. That'll be tough with the Chiefs on the horizon, as they're the fifth-best team in the entire OIL. The Falcons are also without Lamar Miller, who is on a bye. All that being said, I can see them pulling off the upset. All it takes for Mahomes and Kamara to have big games to make up for weaker spots elsewhere. I'm picking the Chiefs, as I think they're the best team in the PFC, but it will be closer than you think.

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Week Nine: Games of the Week

10/30/2018

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We're getting closer and closer to the playoffs and the field is taking shape. The games below will play a huge role in determining seeding and playoff chances moving forward.

AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #1 War Pony

Sawtooths	Category	War Pony
4-4	Record	7-1
156.19	Points Per Game	162.84
179.99 (11th)	OPR (Rank)	202.65 (2nd)
35.7%	Playoff Chances	100%

The Sawtooths sit at just .500 entering Week Nine, but they're OPR ranks 11th in the 42-team OIL. They're a solid team, but they're facing a championship favorite in War Pony, who won the first two AFC championships. If Reed's Sawtooths pull this off, they'll set themselves up well for a run at the playoffs. If War Pony wins, they'll all-but-assure themselves a first-round bye in the playoffs. I predict Venable will do just that, leaving Reed having to win out to guarantee a playoff spot.

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #3 Roughnecks

Dogs of War	Category	Roughnecks
5-3	Record	6-2
149.23	Points Per Game	160.51
174.6 (15th)	OPR (Rank)	187.46 (9th)
73.3%	Playoff Chances	88%

To date, the Roughnecks have been maybe the surprise of the league. At 6-2, they're poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2012. And they're ranked ninth out of 42 OIL teams, but they're playing this week without Joe Mixon and Zach Ertz, each of whom are on a bye this week. That's why I'm picking the lower-ranked Dogs of War this week.

PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Dirty Dogs

Blue Falcons	Category	Dirty Dogs
5-3	Record	6-2
147.39	Points Per Game	161.73
171.66 (16th)	OPR (Rank)	191.96 (7th)
73.3%	Playoff Chances	88%

UPSET ALERT: The Blue Falcons average 14 fewer points per game than the Dirty Dogs, but I'm predicting them to eke out a close victory here while Buehre is dealing with bye weeks for his top QB, top RB, and top two TEs.

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Week Eight: Games of the Week

10/24/2018

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AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #4 Doughboys

Sawtooths	Category	Doughboys
4-3	Record	5-2
161.11	Points Per Game	148.76
185.80	OPR	178.77
55.4%	Playoff Chances	82.9%

Although Green (who has lost the last two Thunder Bowls) has the better record, Reed's Sawtooths are a more impressive team (despite barely being above .500). A win here could cement Reed as a title contender after two years of Danny Woodhead-induced mediocrity. And that's what I'm predicting will happen as Reed starts making a run.

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

Dogs of War	Category	Lucky Enuf
5-2	Record	6-1
149.67	Points Per Game	159.01
178.43	OPR	194.82
82.9%	Playoff Chances	90.0%

Pyle and Lucky Enuf have been jockeying for a first-round bye all season, and a win here could go a long way in that pursuit. But Cobb's Dogs of War have been sneaky-good thus far, sitting at 5-2 and clearly in the playoff hunt. This game will be a toss-up but is equally important for both squads.

PFC:
#12 Boomtown Brawlers vs.
#1 Great Plains Drifters

Boomtown Brawlers	Category	Great Plains Drifters
2-5	Record	7-0
152.32	Points Per Game	157.57
161.79	OPR	198.47
6.9%	Playoff Chances	100%

I chose this matchup because Brake, at 2-5, absolutely needs a win to keep his playoff streak alive. The Brawlers have not only made the playoffs in each of their three OIL seasons, but they've made it to the championship game in each of those seasons. He'll need to win out to guarantee a playoff spot this year. Meanwhile, Gray's Great Plains Autodrafters are on the verge of setting the OIL record for most wins to begin a season. Either way, this game has real stakes, and I'm picking Brake to pull off the upset.

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Week Seven: Games of the Week

10/17/2018

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AFC:
#7 Warm Bodies vs. #5 Rebel Alliance

Warm Bodies	Category	Rebel Alliance
3-3	Record	3-3
145.75	Points Per Game	158.17
169.29	OPR	177.97
42.5%	Playoff Chances	42.5%

Roe's Rebels have won three of four since beginning the season 0-2. But the Warm Bodies are the stronger team this week, and I predict them to cement their status as playoff contenders here.

NFC:
#3 Hangovers vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

Hangovers	Category	Lucky Enuf
4-2	Record	5-1
166.03	Points Per Game	161.03
193.60	OPR	199.21
71.2%	Playoff Chances	88.2%

Lucky Enuf manager Kevin Pyle is one Aaron Rodgers touchdown away from being 6-0, while the Hangovers have dropped two despite averaging over 166 points per game. The winner here sets themselves up nicely going into the second half of the season, and I believe that winner will be Duffy. Pyle is without JuJu Smith-Schuster this week, and I expect that to be the difference.

PFC:
#10 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

Boomtown Brawlers	Category	Team Tadlock
2-4	Record	3-3
151.33	Points Per Game	163.56
163.10	OPR	183.82
8.3%	Playoff Chances	42.5%

Two-time champion Brake began this season 0-4, but he's won two straight in dramatic fashion. If he can win this week, he'll almost be out of that four-game hole he dug. No team has ever started 0-4 and made the playoffs, so keep an eye the Brawlers. Team Tadlock has averaged over 12 more points per game than Brake, but this week is too close to call. Selfishly, I'm hoping Brake wins just for the story of an 0-4 team turning it around though.

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Week Six: Games of the Week

10/10/2018

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AFC:
#6 Steel Reign vs. #3 Redlegs

Steel Reign	Category	Redlegs
3-2	Record	3-2
145.73	Points Per Game	161.77
168.81	OPR	189.37
47.9%	Playoff Odds	47.9%

Although these two teams share a common record, looks can be deceiving. The Redlegs average 15 more points per game and boast an OPR over 20 points higher than Steel Reign. Look for Zerger to get to 4-2.

NFC:
#5 Roughnecks vs. #3 Arrogant Americans

Roughnecks	Category	'Mericans
3-2	Record	4-1
173.10	Points Per Game	146.26
189.02	OPR	180.14
47.9%	Playoff Odds	81.8%

Despite averaging almost 30 points less per game than the Roughnecks, Cliburn's 'Mericans sit a game higher at 4-1. Under normal circumstances, I would pick Baldwin, as he has the better team. But he's dealing with injuries and bye weeks, so I'm cautiously predicting the 'Mericans to move to 5-1.

PFC:
#7 Enforcers vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

Enforcers	Category	Chiefs
3-2	Record	3-2
138.21	Points Per Game	165.35
160.28	OPR	188.56
47.9%	Playoff Odds	47.9%

This is another case where looks can be deceiving. Despite the same record, the Chiefs are vastly superior to the Enforcers . . . and the Enforcers QB is on a bye week. Look for Pennington to get to 4-2.

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Week Five: Games of the Week

10/3/2018

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I can't remember the last time we had multiple #1 vs. #2 games. And if Monday night had gone differently, we'd be looking at three matchups between top-two teams.

AFC:
#2 Redlegs vs. #1 War Pony

Redlegs	Category	War Pony
3-1	Record	4-0
167.15	Points Per Game	167.60
198.59	OPR	208.64
59.6%	Playoff Chances	90.9%

This #1 vs. #2 matchup pits the only two champions the AFC has seen in its four-year history. Zerger slipped up in Week One, but his Redlegs have been on a tear ever since, averaging 180 points per game since then. Meanwhile, Venable and War Pony have ridden a strong (auto)draft to a 4-0 start. With a win, they'll move their playoff odds to 100%. Fortunately, they're facing the Redlegs on a bye-heavy week. Look for the auto-drafted team to get to 5-0. Life isn't fair; nothing matters.

NFC:
#2 Lucky Enuf vs. #1 Whackers

Lucky Enuf	Category	Whackers
4-0	Record	4-0
168.34	Points Per Game	182.50
209.84	OPR	224.31
90.9%	Playoff Chances	90.9%

Another #1 vs. #2 matchup featuring the first champions of this storied league (Lucky Enuf in 2006 and 2008; Whackers in 2007). Unlike Venable, though, each of these managers drafted their own teams. Morgan is a favorite to win the whole thing, and he's facing his biggest competitor at a good time. Pyle's team is hit hard by byes this week. Conversely, the Whackers made it to 4-0 without the aid of Julian Edelman and Alshon Jeffery. Adding those two WRs to an undefeated team seems unfair, but hats off to Morgan for an amazing draft. Whackers get to 5-0 this week.

PFC:
#4 Dirty Dogs vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

Dirty Dogs	Category	FDC Chiefs
3-1	Record	3-1
161.06	Points Per Game	173.29
191.56	OPR	210.52
59.6%	Playoff Chances	59.6%

Buehre is 13 points away from being 4-0 and number one. Pennington is eight points away from being number two. These two are heavy favorites in the PFC. The winner here will see their playoff odds move to 81.8%. Look for the Chiefs to move to 4-1.

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Week Four: Games of the Week

9/26/2018

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We're at the point in the season where a single loss can drop a team's playoff chances by as much as 30%. Unfortunately, we're also getting into bye week and injury season. The NFC number-one Whackers lost their starting QB for the year. Multiple star players are on byes. But the season rolls on. To the games:

AFC:
#2 Brewmasters vs. #1 War Pony

Brewmasters	Category	War Pony
2-1	Record	3-0
160.28	Points Per Game	163.93
189.71	OPR	204.82
54.5%	Playoff Chances	89.5%

War Pony is a two-time champion in this league, so his number-one ranking is not a surprise. But the Brewmasters have never been a true contender. If they're to make a bid for a championship, it starts here. Fortunately, War Pony is dealing with a host of bye weeks and injuries. That's why I'm picking the second-ranked Brew Crew to knock them off and ascend to the top spot.

NFC:
#4 Roughnecks vs. #1 Lucky Enuf

Roughnecks	Category	Lucky Enuf
2-1	Record	3-0
168.43	Points Per Game	156.58
192.99	OPR	200.16
54.2%	Playoff Chances	89.5%

Last week's number-one team faces this week's number-one team. The upstart Roughnecks vs. two-time champion Lucky Enuf. If Pyle can pull it out, his playoff chances will increase to 90.9%. The Roughnecks can move to a 59.6% playoff chance with a win. Although Baldwin's averaging 12 more points per game, I'm picking Lucky Enuf to get to 4-0. Baldwin just has too many injuries and byes.

PFC:
#7 SECFOR Sixers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

SECFOR Sixers	Category	Team Tadlock
2-1	Record	2-1
144.32	Points Per Game	164.83
171.12	OPR	188.06
54.2%	Playoff Chances	54.2%

The winner here sees their playoff odds move to 59.6%. The loser? 43.2%. Unfortunately, Cordes and Sixers are dealing with injuries to TE Evan Engram and RB Jay Ajayi. I'm picking Tadlock to march further towards the playoffs.

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Week Three: Games of the Week

9/19/2018

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It's on to Week Three in the OIL, and we've got some great matchups coming up. Let's get to them:

AFC:
#7 Redlegs vs. #1 Brewmasters

Redlegs	Category	Brewmasters
1-1	Record	2-0
145.35	Points Per Game	175.78
165.35	OPR	215.78
43.33%	Playoff Chances	62.8%

Here we have the two-time defending champion Redlegs versus the upstart, top-ranked Brewmasters. This game is pivotal for Zerger, as a loss for the Redlegs would drop the defending champs' playoff odds to 29.89%. A win would increase that percentage to 54.2%. The Brewmasters are coasting on autodraft, but points are points.

This game will depend on the production of the Redlegs QB position, as they've been hamstrung the past two weeks by Marcus Mariota and Case Keenum. Remarkably, the Redlegs have averaged 145.35 points per game while only getting 9.675 points per game from the QB position. If Zerger can solidify his QB spot, he can win this one, and I'm picking him to pull the upset.

NFC:
#14 AMMODOGS vs. #12 SoonerJack

AMMODOGS	Category	SoonerJack
0-2	Record	0-2
112.93	Points Per Game	130.89
112.93	OPR	130.89
22.2%	Playoff Chances	22.2%

It is pretty early to have a playoff-elimination game, but that's what I think we have here. Teams that begin the season 0-3 have reached the playoffs only 5% of the time over 15 OIL seasons, and these two are 0-2. The AMMODOGS has a good team on paper, but they've massively disappointed due to regression from Deshaun Watson, Eli Manning's pop-gun arm handicapping Odell Beckham, and injuries to Jay Ajayi and Doug Baldwin. SoonerJack is a three-time champion who is always a trade away from contending. Largely due to the injuries, I'm picking Bruesch and SoonerJack to beat the AMMODOGS. However, even at 0-3, Rogers could buck the trend and make the playoffs. It all depends on health and things getting sorted out in the Houston and New York offenses.

SoonerJack is attempting to intimidate the AMMODOGS by wearing their black jerseys commemorating their third OIL championship in 2015. We'll see if it works.

PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #1 FDC Chiefs

Drifters	Category	Chiefs
2-0	Record	2-0
149.00	Points Per Game	191.38
189.16	OPR	231.38
62.8%	Playoff Chances	62.8%

In contrast to the NFC's Game of the Week, the winner of this matchup will increase his playoff chances to 89.5%. But the Great Plains Drifters look like paper tigers right now. Although they have the same 2-0 record as the FDC Chiefs, they average over 40 fewer points per game and their OPR is over 40 points lower than the Chiefs. I'm picking Pennington and his Chiefs to win this one.

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<<Previous

AFC: #3 Doughboys vs. #1 War Pony

NFC: #6 Arrogant Americans vs. #2 Whackers

PFC: #6 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Great Plains Drifters

AFC: #4 Cocks vs. #2 Redlegs

NFC: #4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Whackers

PFC: #3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #2 Dirty Dogs

AFC: #4 Cocks vs. #2 Doughboys

NFC:#3 Roughnecks vs. #1 Whackers

PFC: #5 Blue Falcons vs. #2 FDC Chiefs

AFC: ​#5 Sawtooths vs. #1 War Pony

NFC: ​#4 Dogs of War vs. #3 Roughnecks

PFC: ​#5 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Dirty Dogs

AFC: #5 Sawtooths vs. #4 Doughboys

NFC: #4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

PFC: #12 Boomtown Brawlers vs.​#1 Great Plains Drifters

AFC: #7 Warm Bodies vs. #5 Rebel Alliance

NFC: #3 Hangovers vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

PFC: #10 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

AFC: #6 Steel Reign vs. #3 Redlegs

NFC: #5 Roughnecks vs. #3 Arrogant Americans

PFC: #7 Enforcers vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

AFC: #2 Redlegs vs. #1 War Pony

NFC: #2 Lucky Enuf vs. #1 Whackers

PFC: #4 Dirty Dogs vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

AFC: #2 Brewmasters vs. #1 War Pony

NFC: #4 Roughnecks vs. #1 Lucky Enuf

PFC: #7 SECFOR Sixers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

AFC: #7 Redlegs vs. #1 Brewmasters

NFC: #14 AMMODOGS vs. #12 SoonerJack

PFC: #3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #1 FDC Chiefs

The OklahomIraqis League

What we are:

Who we are:

What we play for:

AFC:
#3 Doughboys vs. #1 War Pony

NFC:
#6 Arrogant Americans vs. #2 Whackers

PFC:
#6 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Great Plains Drifters

AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Redlegs

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Whackers

PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #2 Dirty Dogs

AFC:
#4 Cocks vs. #2 Doughboys

NFC:
#3 Roughnecks vs. #1 Whackers

PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #2 FDC Chiefs

AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #1 War Pony

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #3 Roughnecks

PFC:
#5 Blue Falcons vs. #3 Dirty Dogs

AFC:
#5 Sawtooths vs. #4 Doughboys

NFC:
#4 Dogs of War vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

PFC:
#12 Boomtown Brawlers vs.
#1 Great Plains Drifters

AFC:
#7 Warm Bodies vs. #5 Rebel Alliance

NFC:
#3 Hangovers vs. #2 Lucky Enuf

PFC:
#10 Boomtown Brawlers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

AFC:
#6 Steel Reign vs. #3 Redlegs

NFC:
#5 Roughnecks vs. #3 Arrogant Americans

PFC:
#7 Enforcers vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

AFC:
#2 Redlegs vs. #1 War Pony

NFC:
#2 Lucky Enuf vs. #1 Whackers

PFC:
#4 Dirty Dogs vs. #3 FDC Chiefs

AFC:
#2 Brewmasters vs. #1 War Pony

NFC:
#4 Roughnecks vs. #1 Lucky Enuf

PFC:
#7 SECFOR Sixers vs. #4 Team Tadlock

AFC:
#7 Redlegs vs. #1 Brewmasters

NFC:
#14 AMMODOGS vs. #12 SoonerJack

PFC:
#3 Great Plains Drifters vs. #1 FDC Chiefs