The first playoff odds have been calculated, and it looks like the playoff picture is all but resolved. The only thing left is to see who gets Rivalry Week bragging rights and who secures the first-round byes. Week 11 analysis after the jump.
#10 Arrogant Americans vs. #11 Dogs of War
This rematch of the 2013 OIL Bowl has lost quite a bit of its luster. The 'Mericans have a 1.42% chance of making the playoffs, while the Dogs sit at 0.0%. Still, someone has to win. It might as well be my team.
#7 AMMODOGS vs. #12 Hangovers
The Hangovers won last week to snap a record-tying eight-game winning streak. It's a good thing, too, because they face a very tough AMMODOGS squad this week. Rogers wins this one and gets his 'DOGS one step closer to a playoff berth (currently at 71.94% chance of happening).
#5 Lucky Enuf vs. #9 Roughnecks
Lucky Enuf was upset by Bruesch last week while the Roughnecks knocked off the Hippies. But the roles reverse this week. Pyle gets the win and currently has a 92.87% chance of making the playoffs. This is also my uniform matchup of the week: black; gold; white; navy; neon green, all in perfect proportions.
#14 DominationStation vs. #8 Dirty Hippies
This is a dangerous week for Jessen. If his DominationStation loses to Trovillo, they set the all-time OIL record for longest losing streak (nine games). Trovillo hasn't had a fantastic season, but there's a reason Jessen is 2-8 (his team sucks). The Hippies pull out the win here, and they need it. They have just a 14.12% chance to make the playoffs.
#13 Whackers vs. #1 Hard Targets
Finch has a 100% chance to make the playoffs while Morgan has no chance. The Targets win their ninth-straight and set up a meeting with Cliburn where Finch will get a chance to break Cliburn's record for longest winning streak.
#6 Dead Again vs. #3 SoonerJack
Pardon the pun, but Dead Again just won't die. They've suffered injuries to Roethlisberger, Jordan Reed, Steve Smith, and Melvin Gordon but keep on trucking. They're a game above .500 and sit in the last playoff spot (if the season ended today). But, alas, they still have just an 18.10% chance of making the playoffs. Meanwhile, Bruesch has a 99.46% chance of making the post-season. SoonerJack wins this one.
#2 Norman Nobodies vs. #4 DARC NARCS
And this brings us to our game of the week. Number two versus number four. These teams are both virtual locks to make the playoffs. I think Henderson pulls the "upset" here and the battle for a first-round bye continues until the final whistle of Rivalry Week.