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2020: Championships Preview

12/23/2020

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What a wild ride 2020 has been. It started with (and will end with) a global pandemic, saw the biggest bet in OIL history made at the cabin, and transitioned into the most contentious presidential election of our lifetimes. But none of that prepared any of us for this crazytown of a championship week.
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Yahoo recap

Despite top scorer Josh Allen, War Pony falls to Mutinous Apes, 157.20-145.25

Josh Allen had 45.25 points for War Pony, the best total in the matchup and second-highest in the league this week, but it wasn't enough to defeat Mutinous Apes, who secured a 157.20-145.25 win. War Pony nabbed an 8.90-point lead on Thursday, but Mutinous Apes held the lead the rest of the way. They were led by Calvin Ridley (10 Rec, 163 Rec Yds, 1 Rec TD) and D'Andre Swift (67 Rush Yds, 2 Rush TDs, 15 Rec Yds). Josh Allen (45.25 points) and Stefon Diggs (25.7) did their part for War Pony in the loss. This marks the second time this season Mutinous Apes have beaten War Pony, after winning 120.6-100.9 in their last matchup. Mutinous Apes will look to clinch the championship next week, while War Pony seek to bounce back and finish the season with a win in the 3rd Place game.

Matchup Player of the Week

While catching 4 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys, WR Kendrick Bourne scored 18.6 points this week. His scoring output was 66.7% more than his 11.16-point projection and was much higher than his 7.64-point season scoring average. Bourne will face the Cardinals next week.

What If
  •  Mutinous Apes would have beaten nine other teams besides War Pony this week. 
  • War Pony would have lost to five other teams besides Mutinous Apes this week.
  • If they played War Pony every week, Mutinous Apes would be 6-8 this season.
  • Mutinous Apes would be 7-5 if they played the same schedule (excluding head-to-head matchups) as War Pony.
  • If they played the same schedule (excluding head-to-head matchups) as Mutinous Apes, War Pony would be 7-5.
  • If Mutinous Apes had played every team in the league each week, they would be 107-80.
  • If they played every team every week, War Pony would be 103-77.
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Yahoo! Recap:

Doughboys come up short of projections, lose to Negligent Discharges in 150.60-120.05 rout

Doughboys failed to rise to the occasion, coming up short of projections, as Negligent Discharges rolled to a 150.60-120.05 victory. Doughboys grabbed a 14.90-point lead on Thursday, but Negligent Discharges held the lead the rest of the way. They were led by Tom Brady (31.3 points) and Aaron Jones (24.8). Mark Andrews (17.6 points) and Russell Wilson (15.25) did everything they could for Doughboys in the loss. This marks the second time this season Negligent Discharges have knocked off Doughboys, after winning 177.35-157.2 in their last matchup. Negligent Discharges will look to clinch the league title next week, while Doughboys attempt to rebound and finish the season with a win in the 3rd Place game.

Matchup Player of the Week

WR Robert Woods overachieved for the eighth time this season, scoring 21.6 points against his 17.53-point projection. In a 23-20 loss to the Jets, he racked up 96 yards from scrimmage and caught a touchdown pass. Woods ranks #40 among all fantasy players this season and will face the Seahawks next week.

Game Notes
  • Negligent Discharges won despite the fact that only five of their 11 starters exceeded their scoring projections.
  • Doughboys had only five of their 11 starters score higher than their projected points.
  • Negligent Discharges won despite starting Tyler Boyd, who scored zero points.
  • Negligent Discharges had four players score more points than the leading scorer for Doughboys.
  • Both teams failed to reach their season scoring average.
  • Both teams scored below their projected point total.
  • Negligent Discharges moves to (8-1) in blowout games this season, while Doughboys falls to (6-4).
  • For Doughboys, Mark Andrews put up 17.6 points, the fifth-best score for a TE this week.
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Forgive Musselman and Schuster for not acting like they've been here before . . . because they haven't. In the seven-season history of the AFC, Musselman had never made the playoffs, had a winning season, or even won more than four games. Schuster's OIL career hasn't been much better: two winning seasons; one playoff appearance; no playoff wins. But this is 2020, where anything can happen, and it's these two that are vying for the Killman Memorial Trophy.

The OIL is not a money league, but degenerate gambler Schuster found a way to make it one. At the 2020 draft cabin, Schuster made a bet with Jessen: $1,000 to the first manager to win his respective conference. At the time, it seemed a pretty safe bet for both parties. Jessen hadn't made a championship since before the AFC existed, and Schuster had never been a serious contender anyway. But here we are, and, if Schuster pulls this off, Jessen will have to explain to his wife why there won't be a vacation in 2021.
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The draft is the foundation of a great fantasy football season, and these two drafts set their managers up well. They weren't perfect. Musselman drafted three tight ends and selected both a kicker and a defense too early. But rounds 1-10 went great and his final two picks of WR Tee Higgins and WR Russell Gage were brilliant.

​Schuster's draft also went very well. His picks in rounds nine and 10 missed most of the season due to injury and illness, but who can predict that? WRs Curtis Samuel and Sammy Watkins were important contributors down the stretch, and round one pick Tyreek Hill set the OIL record for most points in a single game for a WR.
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Musselman began the season 2-4, which is pretty typical for the Apes​. But, from Weeks seven to 13, they went 6-1. Meanwhile, Schuster began the season 8-0 before slipping to 2-3 over the final five games.
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In both points per game and OPR, the Negligent Discharges are the superior team. But the Apes won the regular season matchup, and they're now 8-1 over their last nine games. Each team has over half of their draft class remaining, a testament to their strength.
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Rosters are subject to change prior to kickoff.
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Although the Negligent Discharges are the more accomplished team this season, the Apes are peaking at the right time, averaging over 176 points per game over their past three. In contrast, Schuster's squad is averaging 151 points over their last three. Schuster has been weak at TE all season since losing Blake Jarwin early. It's a wonder they've made it this far with Trey Burton and Richard Rodgers. Musselman relied on Rob Gronkowski at the position in the semifinals because Mike Gesicki was injured. But both Gesicki and Julio Jones appear to be playing this week. Further, Darrell Henderson may be starting due to an injury to Cam Akers. I'm picking the Apes to upset Schuster, saving Jessen $1,000.
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The $1,000 cabin bet was just as motivating for Jessen as it was for Schuster. With money on the line, his DominationStation scratched and clawed their way to the OIL Bowl for the first time since 2012. He's facing SoonerJack Bruesch, who is in the championship game for a record sixth time. 
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Yahoo! Recap:

​DominationStation top Arrogant Americans for third straight win, 175.05-166.25


DominationStation extended their win streak to three games with a hard-fought win over Arrogant Americans, securing a 175.05-166.25 victory. Arrogant Americans earned a 5.50-point lead on Thursday, but DominationStation held the lead the rest of the way. They were led by Deshaun Watson, who passed for 373 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 25 yards for 31.15 points, and David Montgomery, who racked up 162 yards from scrimmage and ran for 2 touchdowns (29.2 points). Josh Allen (45.25 points) and Calvin Ridley (32.3) carried the flag for Arrogant Americans in the loss. This marks the first time this season DominationStation have gotten the best of Arrogant Americans, after falling 157.6-85.3 in their last matchup. DominationStation will look to clinch the league title next week, while Arrogant Americans seek to bounce back and lock up 3rd Place.

Matchup Highlights

Both teams had players with highlight-reel moments Saturday, but it was Arrogant Americans who emerged with the lead, 59.75-28.20. For DominationStation, DJ Moore had a 40-yard catch. Josh Allen made the highlight reel for Arrogant Americans with a 24-yard touchdown run and a 22-yard touchdown pass. 

There were players with highlight-reel moments on both teams early Sunday, but after the results were tallied, DominationStation emerged with a 152.25-120.75 lead. Deshaun Watson had a 38-yard touchdown pass for DominationStation, while Antonio Brown had a 46-yard touchdown catch. Younghoe Koo made the highlight reel for Arrogant Americans with a 52-yard field goal.


Matchup Player of the Week

WR Antonio Brown caught 5 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown as the Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31-27. In doing so, he put up 20.3 points and scored 76.2% higher than his scoring projection, the highest percentage of any player on DominationStation this week. Brown will face the Lions next week.

StatSmack
  • DominationStation are looking unstoppable, with victories in three straight weeks.
  • DominationStation laugh in the face of danger. They've got more upset wins this season (1) than Arrogant Americans (0).
  • DominationStation don't falter at the last minute, with fewer close losses than Arrogant Americans (0 vs 1).
  • DominationStation should change their team name to "The Overachievers" since they have scored higher than projected in more matchups than Arrogant Americans (7 vs 6).
  • Well, there’s one stat in favor of Arrogant Americans - they’ve made more transactions (2) than DominationStation (1) this week. Too bad that itchy pickup finger didn't pay off.
  • By position, DominationStation have outscored Arrogant Americans at QB, TE, and K this season.
  • DominationStation don’t just win, they win BIG, with an average margin of victory of 12 points, second-highest in the league.
  • Hey Arrogant Americans, maybe you'll have better luck next year!
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This game was bananas. With 2:27 left in the San Francisco-Dallas game, Lucky Enuf was down by a considerable margin, but then all hell broke loose. First, Lucky Enuf RB Tony Pollard, filling in for an injured Ezekiel Elliott, broke off a 40-yard touchdown run to seemingly end the game (+10 points for Pyle). San Francisco promptly marched down the field and made a field goal, bringing them within a touchdown of Dallas's lead. On the ensuing onside kick, Lucky Enuf WR CeeDee Lamb caught the ball off the bounce and returned it for a 47-yard touchdown (+8.35 points for Pyle). Then, with just seconds remaining in the game, Lucky Enuf WR Kendrick Bourne caught a 49-yard Hail Mary touchdown (+11.9 points for Pyle).

Just like that, Pyle's incredible 30.25-point sequence gave him the lead heading into Monday Night Football, where he had the dominant Pittsburgh defense going against the hapless Bengals and a QB named Ryan Finley and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster. SoonerJack​ was down by four with only WR Diontae Johnson playing on Monday night. But something incredible happened: the Pittsburgh defense imploded, JuJu couldn't catch a cold (and fumbled one pass that he did catch), and Diontae Johnson got over his recent drop streak. Bruesch overtook Pyle and made his way to the OIL Bowl. 
Yahoo! Recap:

Soonerjack outperform projections, come back to knock off Lucky Enuf, 204.10-193.05

Both teams stepped up and outperformed expectations, but Soonerjack got the best of Lucky Enuf, rallying to earn a 204.10-193.05 victory. Trailing 188.55-184.20 heading into Monday night, Soonerjack made a run behind Diontae Johnson (19.9 points). Justin Herbert (35.1 points) and Tony Pollard (32.2) led the charge for Lucky Enuf in defeat. This marks the second time this season Soonerjack have beaten Lucky Enuf, after winning 176.55-142.55 in their last matchup. Soonerjack will look to clinch the championship next week, while Lucky Enuf attempt to bounce back and finish the season with a win in the 3rd Place game.

Matchup Player of the Week

RB David Johnson overachieved for the fourth time this season, scoring 24.3 points against his 13.59-point projection. In a 27-20 loss to the Colts, he racked up 133 yards from scrimmage . Johnson will face the Bengals next week.

StatSmack
  • One's a data point, Two's a trend. In their two matchup wins against Lucky Enuf, Soonerjack averaged more points (190.33) than they usually score (150.01).
  • In dire times, at least Soonerjack keep it close. They've been blown out less times than Lucky Enuf (2 vs 4).
  • Soonerjack should change their team name to "The Overachievers" since they have scored higher than projected in more matchups than Lucky Enuf (7 vs 6).
  • Well, there’s one stat in favor of Lucky Enuf - they’ve made more transactions (4) than Soonerjack (1) this week. That didn't seem to help them this time, though.
  • By position, Soonerjack have outscored Lucky Enuf at RB and TE this season.
  • Soonerjack has a higher average scoring margin (8) than Lucky Enuf this season (6).
  • Hey Lucky Enuf, maybe you'll have better luck next year!
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I would say Jessen's draft was awful in hindsight, but we all knew it was awful at the time. Yahoo! predicted a last-place finish, and Rate My League ranked the draft 37th out of the 42-team OIL. 
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Bruesch's draft was better, and Yahoo! predicted an 8-5 season. His path to the championship game was hindered almost right away, though, as first-round pick RB Saquon Barkley tore his ACL. Oddly enough, this was a good omen for SoonerJack. In 2008, first-round pick QB Tom Brady tore his ACL in Week One . . . and Bruesch went on to tie in the OIL Bowl. In 2011, first-round pick RB Jamaal Charles tore his ACL . . . and Bruesch went on to beat Jessen in the OIL Bowl. In 2015 and 2017, first-round picks RB DeMarco Murray and WR Jordy Nelson escaped serious injury but did not live up to expectations . . . and yet Bruesch made it to the OIL Bowl both seasons, winning it again in 2015. Then, in 2019, first-round pick RB David Johnson battled injury and ineffectiveness, finishing as RB 36 . . . and Bruesch made the OIL Bowl. If Bruesch ever starts nailing his first-round picks, watch out, because the rest of his drafts are deep and talented. 

Jessen's draft needed supplementation, however, and he accomplished that early with a blockbuster trade with the Hangovers. 
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​Since this trade was processed, DominationStation is 10-3 and the Hangovers are 6-5. But that wasn't the only trade completed by Jessen, as Cobb and Schmidt also helped DominationStation get to this point. 
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SoonerJack was also busy trading, with two trades vetoed due to league suspicion of tanking by the Whackers.
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Jessen is 7-2 over his last nine games (including playoffs), while Bruesch is 8-1 over the same period. Both are peaking at the right time. 
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DominationStation has averaged 156.99 points over their last five games, an 18-point increase over their season average. SoonerJack has averaged almost 10 points per game more than their season average over the same time frame, averaging 154.68. 
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​Rosters are subject to change prior to kickoff.
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As much as I would hate for Bruesch to win a fourth title (passing the commish on the all-time list), I do believe he is a slight favorite this week. It's too bad Lucky Enuf couldn't hold their lead on SoonerJack in the semifinals because I think DominationStation matchup up very well with Pyle's squad. This could go either way, but Bruesch gets the nod.
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Yahoo! Recap:

Despite top scorer Brees, Nightmares fall to Blue Falcons in 149.05-147.85 battle

Drew Brees racked up 27.7 points for Nightmares, the best total in the matchup and 10th-highest in the league this week, but it wasn't enough to vanquish Blue Falcons, who narrowly earned a 149.05-147.85 win. It wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicates, as Blue Falcons led 137.05-78.95 heading into the late afternoon slate on Sunday. Nightmares came roaring back behind Drew Brees (27.7 points) and Tyreek Hill (17.4). Blue Falcons were led by Marvin Jones Jr. (27.2 points) and J.D. McKissic (25.7). This marks the second time this season Blue Falcons have gotten the best of Nightmares, after winning 182.8-127.4 in their last matchup. Blue Falcons will look to clinch the league title next week, while Nightmares attempt to bounce back and lock up 3rd Place.

Matchup Player of the Week

While racking up 107 yards from scrimmage and catching a touchdown pass against the Seahawks, J.D. McKissic recorded 25.7 points this week. His scoring output more-than-doubled his 12.21-point projection and was much higher than his 12.56-point season scoring average. McKissic will face the Panthers next week.

Game Notes
  • Just five of the 11 starters on Blue Falcons scored more than their projected point totals.
  • Nightmares lost despite seven of their 11 starters scoring above their projected points.
  • Both teams exceeded their season scoring average.
  • Blue Falcons won despite scoring fewer points than projected, while Nightmares outscored their projection.
  • The matchup's 1.2-point margin was the second-closest in the league this week.
  • This defeat snaps a two-game unbeaten streak for Nightmares.
  • Vegas wouldn't be too happy with Blue Falcons. They won, but did not cover the 12.89-point projected margin of victory.
  • Blue Falcons moves to (1-0) in close games this year, while Nightmares falls to (2-2).

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Yahoo! Recap:

Dirty Dogs hand Vandals third consecutive loss, 141.80-122.45

Dirty Dogs earned a 141.80-122.45 victory to hand Vandals their third straight loss. Vandals grabbed a 38.2-point lead on Saturday behind impressive showings from Stefon Diggs, who caught 11 passes for 147 yards for 25.7 points, and Mike Davis, who ran for 59 yards (8.1 points). But Dirty Dogs held the lead the rest of the way, powered by Kyler Murray (43.2 points) and Calvin Ridley (32.3). This marks the second time this season Dirty Dogs have gotten the best of Vandals, after winning 155.65-138.35 in their last matchup. Dirty Dogs will look to not lose that winning feeling in the Championship next week, while Vandals attempt to rebound and lock up 3rd Place.

Matchup Player of the Week

While passing for 406 yards, running for 29 yards and scoring 4 touchdowns against the Eagles, QB Kyler Murray recorded 43.2 points this week. His scoring output was 53.4% more than his 28.16-point projection and was higher than his 30.36-point season scoring average. Murray ranks #1 among all fantasy players this season and will face the 49ers next week.

What If
  • Dirty Dogs would have beaten four other teams besides Vandals this week.
  • Vandals would have lost to eight other teams besides Dirty Dogs this week.
  • Dirty Dogs would be 7-7 if they played Vandals every week.
  • Dirty Dogs would be 9-3 if they played the same schedule (excluding head-to-head matchups) as Vandals.
  • If they played the same schedule (excluding head-to-head matchups) as Dirty Dogs, Vandals would be 6-6.
  • If Dirty Dogs had played every team in the league each week, they would be 114-66.
  • If they played every team every week, Vandals would be 93-94.
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While his run is not as shocking as Musselman's, Baldwin is also riding a Cinderella season. He finished in last place in 2019 and is trying to become the first team to go worst to first since . . . the Dirty Dogs, his Patriot Bowl opponent. The Dogs are in the championship game for the fourth time, with Buehre seeking his third championship. 
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Both teams enjoyed good drafts. Incredibly, the Dirty Dogs' first seven picks are still every-week starters. Baldwin had a good draft that was hindered by circumstances out of his control, as he lost his first, second, third,, seventh, and eighth-round picks to injury for significant portions of the season. His biggest mistake, though, was giving up on RB Nick Chubb, who came back in the regular season and produced. Buehre smartly supplemented his pick of QB Kyler Murray with a savvy trade for QB Justin Herbert in October. 
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Two-time champion Buehre began the season 1-2, and it wasn't looking good. But he's 9-2 since Week Three. Baldwin's regular season was delightfully symmetrical: L; 5 W's; L; 5 W's; L. But his squad is trending in the wrong direction. After averaging 155.44 points over their first six games, they've only averaged 138.57 points over the next eight matchups. Fortunately, the Blue Falcons' schedule was the easiest in the PFC. The Dirty Dogs are unlikely to be as forgiving, so Baldwin better put up some points in Week 16.
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This is the most-evenly matched of the championship games, although Buehre has been stronger as of late. Baldwin's 1.145 OPR is by far the best of his OIL career, while Buehre's 1.138 ranks second in his franchise's storied history.
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Rosters are subject to change prior to kickoff.
There are two ways to look at Baldwin's second-half slump: 1. his team wasn't as good as we thought it was; or 2. he suffered numerous injuries, including to his top RB and TE, and he scratched and clawed his way to victories. I think it's a little bit of both, as it is incredible that the Falcons made it this far with a RB corps of J.D. McKissic and whoever was on the waiver wire that week. In Week 15, his RBs were McKissic, Jeff Wilson, and Rashaad Penny. That's it. End of transmission.

​Since Nick Chubb was injured, a staggering six different RBs have started at RB2 for the Falcons. Kudos to Baldwin for finding and sticking with J.D. McKissic though, as the diminutive former Seahawk has been the ninth-highest scoring RB since Week 10.

Can Baldwin pull the magic out of the hat one more time? Who will he sign to the RB2 role this week? Whoever he is will likely be the difference in the game.
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Baldwin's run has been exciting. It's a fun story, as his Falcons went 3-10 last season. But, unfortunately, I believe the clock is about to strike midnight. Maybe he finds a diamond in the rough at RB2, but, until he does, I have to give the edge to the Dirty Dogs. Yes, Buehre is dealing with RB injuries of his own, but his team is deeper at the position and more likely to overcome the handicap. 

Keep an eye on TE George Kittle, though. If he plays, he could provide the spark (and perhaps a cushion in TE points) to make up for the lack of star power at RB for the Falcons​. 
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The OklahomIraqis League

What we are:

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  • Oral History      

Who we are:

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What we play for:

  • Killman Memorial Trophy
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