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Historic Odds to Win Championship
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The OIL has released odds of each team winning a championship this year. The odds are based on the manager's previous seasons. This is not dependent on current rosters or standings. It is a barometer based on past performance.
The baseline odds would be 1:13, so you can compare your odds to those. It first takes your history of making the playoffs and converts it to odds, e.g. in 13 seasons, Cliburn has made the playoffs nine times, so his playoff odds are 9:4). It then multiplies those odds by your odds of getting into the second round of the playoffs (2:3, since there are six playoff teams and four make it to the second round) and finally multiplies the result by the odds of winning the title (1:4). The result is 3:8, meaning that, if Cliburn played 11 seasons, he would be expected to win the title in three of them. Morgan's odds are 1:7, meaning that, if Morgan played eight seasons, he would be expected to win the title in one of those seasons. For Leal, the odds are 1:20, meaning it would take 21 seasons for Leal to win one championship (only eight seasons to go, Leal!)
You'll notice that some teams with multiple championships have relatively low odds. For example, Bruesch's odds are 1:6, but he has won three championships already. This is the result of Bruesch making the playoffs in only six of his 12 seasons. Bruesch has been very fortunate when he does make the playoffs, winning the championship 50% of the time that he makes the playoffs. However, he only makes the playoffs 50% of the time, which lowered his odds.
The odds are more representative in the NFC, as it has had 13 years of data to crunch and, thus, a larger sample size. But it's fun to look at the odds throughout the OIL. Again, this can't be predictive based on how you draft, but they can be instructive based on past performance. Without further ado, here they are:
The baseline odds would be 1:13, so you can compare your odds to those. It first takes your history of making the playoffs and converts it to odds, e.g. in 13 seasons, Cliburn has made the playoffs nine times, so his playoff odds are 9:4). It then multiplies those odds by your odds of getting into the second round of the playoffs (2:3, since there are six playoff teams and four make it to the second round) and finally multiplies the result by the odds of winning the title (1:4). The result is 3:8, meaning that, if Cliburn played 11 seasons, he would be expected to win the title in three of them. Morgan's odds are 1:7, meaning that, if Morgan played eight seasons, he would be expected to win the title in one of those seasons. For Leal, the odds are 1:20, meaning it would take 21 seasons for Leal to win one championship (only eight seasons to go, Leal!)
You'll notice that some teams with multiple championships have relatively low odds. For example, Bruesch's odds are 1:6, but he has won three championships already. This is the result of Bruesch making the playoffs in only six of his 12 seasons. Bruesch has been very fortunate when he does make the playoffs, winning the championship 50% of the time that he makes the playoffs. However, he only makes the playoffs 50% of the time, which lowered his odds.
The odds are more representative in the NFC, as it has had 13 years of data to crunch and, thus, a larger sample size. But it's fun to look at the odds throughout the OIL. Again, this can't be predictive based on how you draft, but they can be instructive based on past performance. Without further ado, here they are:
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