2018 Playoffs: Round One

Of 18 playoff contenders, eight of them (almost half!) account for 15 previous championships. They are: 

• War Pony: AFC, 2014-2015
• Redlegs: AFC, 2016-2017
• Lucky Enuf: NFC, 2006, 2008
• Dogs of War: NFC, 2013
• Whackers: NFC, 2007
• SoonerJack: NFC, 2008, 2011, 2015
• Arrogant Americans: NFC, 2010, 2012, 2017
• Dirty Dogs: PFC, 2016

The AFC has only known two champions in its history, and each are in the hunt this year. In the NFC, only the Roughnecks are seeking their first championship. Meanwhile, the PFC only has a one-in-six chance of a repeat champion. 

Click on the matchup title to view the game on Yahoo!​. 

Venable and Peacock enjoy a first-round bye this week, while last year's championship participants (Zerger and Green) join Nye and Brosh in having to fight their way to the semifinals.

​Doughboys	Category	Warm Bodies
8-5	​Record	9-4
151.42	​Points Per Game	145.12
1.102 (9th)	OPR (Rank)	1.077 (11th)
4-2	H2H Record	2-4

The early game Sunday pits Green against Nye, who seems perpetually underrated. The Doughboys lost James Conner to injury this week, but their team is solid. It will have to be if Green wants to move on to the semifinals for the third-straight season. I don't think he does, although his team is arguably superior. 

Redlegs	Category	Vultures
8-5	​Record	9-4
157.11	​Points Per Game	143.28
1.113 (7th)	OPR (Rank)	1.033 (17th)
3-3	​H2H Record	3-3

Brosh is right: he should have lost last week. If he did, he wouldn't be facing the two-time defending champions in the first round. But here we are. I am thisclose to picking the Vultures in an upset, but I can't get past their glaring weak spot at TE: CJ Uzomah. However, their QB (Patrick Mahomes) could easily put up 40 while Redlegs QB Lamar Jackson could disappoint. This is a toss-up. 

Editor's note: I love seeing these matchups between guys who were at the draft cabin in August. 

Former champions Pyle and Cobb enjoy first-round byes after Morgan stumbled down the stretch. Of the four teams playing on the opening weekend, only the Roughnecks don't have their name on the Lawson Memorial Trophy. 

'​Mericans	Category	​Whackers
8-5	​Record	9-4
144.50	​Points Per Game	162.52
1.040 (16th)	OPR (Rank)	1.177 (4th)
8-5	​H2H Record	5-8

This is another matchup between managers who drafted together at the cabin. The Whackers have been the favorite all season, but they stumbled down the stretch due to losing a starting QB and RB to injury. And they lost to this 'Mericans team just two weeks ago. Still, their team is superior to my 'Mericans and I'm picking them to gain revenge and move on to the semifinals behind a big rebound game from Alvin Kamara. The 'Mericans​, meanwhile, will need big games from QB Jameis Winston and its WR corps in order to stand a chance. 

​SoonerJack	Category	​Roughnecks
8-5	​Record	9-4
147.10	​Points Per Game	155.71
1.050 (14th)	OPR (Rank)	1.124 (6th)
5-3	​H2H Record	3-5

Well, what do you know? Baldwin finally shows up to draft his team in-person and he has his best season in years. Bruesch was not at the draft cabin (although he did golf with us beforehand), but he always drafts his own team. This matchup is incredibly balanced, with each team missing their star RB (Melvin Gordon for the Roughnecks; Leonard Fournette for SoonerJack). I'm picking the Roughnecks to notch their 10th win of the season with or without Gordon. 

Falcons	Category	Drifters
7-6	​Record	9-4
149.02	​Points Per Game	145.09
1.044 (15th)	OPR (Rank)	1.056 (13th)
0-5	​H2H Record	5-0

The Blue Falcons needed a win to jumpfrog Team Tadlock for the final playoff spot, and they got it done. Now, they face the 9-4 Great Plains Drifters. I predict the Falcons will pull off the upset behind big games from QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Alvin Kamara, and TE Zach Ertz. Their reward? Facing the top-ranked FDC Chiefs in the semifinals. 

Orangebloods	Category	​Xtreme
8-5	​Record	9-4
139.52	​Points Per Game	138.83
0.988 (22nd)	OPR (Rank)	1.019 (19th)
1-3	​H2H Record	3-1

Both of these teams finished outside the top-18 in OPR, but each took advantage of favorable schedules to make the 18-team playoff field. While McKay should be commended for steering his Orangebloods to an 8-5 record, I think they are outmatched this week. Even at full strength, the 'bloods​ are objectively a below-average team, with an OPR of 0.988 (1.000 is perfectly average). And now, AJ Green is on IR and Leonard Fournette is 50/50 to play. The Xtreme will roll behind QB Drew Brees and RB Christian McCaffrey.